Critics are claiming that President Obama’s policy in Syria is crumbling under the weight of hundreds of thousands of refugees streaming into Europe, and the admitted failure of a program to build a moderate opposition force.
While the White House assesses recent developments, Russia has created new facts on the ground by deploying troops and arms to bolster the regime of President Bashar al-Assad, further limiting U.S. options.
Meanwhile, more than half of Syria’s 18 million people are on the move, seeking refuge from mass murder by Assad’s forces and the brutality of Islamic State extremists. Some 7.6 million are displaced within the country and 4 million have left to become refugees. Hundreds of thousands of those are streaming into Europe, with more coming every day, creating the worst humanitarian crisis since the end of World War II.
The administration is reportedly working on plans to dramatically increase the number of Syrians admitted to the United States as refugees. Only 1,500 have been allowed in.
But lawmakers from both parties in Congress want the administration to do more. Specifically, they want the United States to create and enforce “safe zones” within Syria where civilians can be safe from both the Assad regime and the Islamic State.
“It is time for some leadership on this issue. It is time for a no-fly zone to protect those families and those children before they give up all hope and flee,” said House Foreign Affairs Chairman Ed Royce, R-Calif. “That is the most immediate thing we should do.”
At a Senate Armed Services Committee hearing Wednesday, Sen. Tim Kaine, D-Va., acknowledged that Chairman Sen. John McCain, R-Ariz., has been right to call for a safe zone.
“I think we would have been wise to do it when Sen. McCain suggested it. I think we still would be wise to do it,” Kaine said.
But Gen. Lloyd Austin, head of U.S. Central Command, told McCain, “I would not recommend a buffer zone at this point, sir,” earning a sharp rebuke from the chairman.
“Gen. Austin, I respectfully disagree. I respectfully, fundamentally disagree,” McCain said. “This is an abject failure. The refugees are the result of that.”
Assad has been left untouched by the year-long U.S.-led bombing campaign in his country, which is focused on the Islamic State. Though the Obama administration insists Assad must step down, it has been unwilling to use force against him. And this reluctance, defense officials admit, has been one of the reasons the program to train and equip a moderate Syrian opposition force of 5,400 fighters has produced virtually no results.
At the committee hearing Austin admitted that only “four or five” of the 54 fighters who had so far been trained through the program remained on the battlefield, prompting a harsh reaction from surprised lawmakers.
“This is a total failure. A failure. I wish it weren’t so, but that’s a fact,” said Sen. Jeff Sessions, R-Ala.
The collapse of the training program is forcing the United States to rely on local allies, such as the Syrian Kurdish group YPG, to influence the fight against the Islamic State on the ground. Meanwhile, the White House is sticking to its stance that negotiations are the only practical way of getting Assad out of power.
“The solution to this lies in advancing the kind of political agreement that would transfer Assad out of power and put in power a government inside of Syria that has the confidence and reflects the will of the Syrian people,” White House spokesman Josh Earnest said Thursday.
Defense Secretary Ash Carter meanwhile is considering re-opening military-to-military contacts with Russia that were interrupted by Moscow’s 2014 invasion of Crimea. Russia had requested the dialogue in the wake of its intervention in Syria to avoid accidental conflicts with U.S. and other coalition forces.
But Frederic Hof, a former adviser to Obama on Syria, said the refugee crisis makes a change in U.S. policy toward creating safe zones for civilians essential.
“Mass slaughter renders irrelevant all talk of a negotiated settlement, all talk about political transition arrangements,” said Hof, at a panel discussion Wednesday at the Atlantic Council, where he’s a senior fellow.
“Civilian protection is the sole portal through which positive change in Syria … is possible.”
