The Rolling Stone article that ended Gen. Stanley McChrystal’s shot at executing a counterinsurgency strategy he authored also portrayed soldiers and officers struggling to deal with loathed rules of engagement designed to protect civilians but that many feel endanger soldiers. And the article also showed military officers losing faith with a deadline for beginning to withdraw from Afghanistan of July 2011. One U.S. officer serving in Afghanistan said troops there are hopeful Petraues, who has enormous credibility with politicians and the American people as the perceived author of a successful Iraq turnaround, can nudge the Obama team off the July 2011 withdrawal date, and make some tweaks to the rules of engagement. “[The withdrawal date] only feeds the enemy ammunition to use against us and recruit more insurgents,” the officer said. “They use it against us and that’s an enormous issue in Afghanistan.” But, assuming he survives congressional confirmation hearings this week. Petraeus is not expected to radically change Afghan strategy, experts said. James Carafano, the senior defense policy analyst at the Heritage Foundation, a conservative think tank in Washington, said Petraeus “may fix flaws in the current strategy but fundamentally it is the right strategy.” He said, “I’m not sure it is a failing approach. Gen. Petraeus needs to demonstrate enough short-term success after he takes command so the president doesn’t have to cower before anti-war critics.” The crisis for the Obama administration could come if Petraeus sizes up a war effort that has seemed to go badly lately, with rising casualties and few tangible gains, and decides he needs to ask the president for more troops, or more time. If Petraeus says “I need more to win,” Obama would either have to turn down the popular war hero who has the backing of many in the political right and center, or endure howls of protests from the left by expanding the war, Carafano said. Retired Army Maj. Gen. Paul Vallely, who knows both McChrystal and Petraeus, said the incoming general may have no more success than the outgoing one in dealing with the Obama national security team. Frustration with Vice President Biden, Ambassador to Afghanistan Karl Eikenberry, National Security Adviser James Jones and special envoy to Afghanistan Richard Holbrooke led to several of the dismissive comments that got McChrystal fired. “The national security team under Obama will not develop and implement a new strategy that strongly challenges the corrupt central government led by Karzai,” Vallely said. Arturo Munoz, a senior political scientist at Rand and an expert on the security threats in Afghanistan, said there will “be a period of uncertainty with a new commander in Afghanistan.” But Munoz said the change in command offers a ray of hope for U.S. policy in Afghanistan. “The bright side is Petreaus knows Afghanistan,” Munoz said. “Petraeus is much more political, much more polished. McChrystal was much more of a combat guy. He may not change the overall strategy but he’ll have his own mark on this war.”
