A former senior adviser to President Obama claims it’s “very possible” Florida Sen. Marco Rubio could pull off an upset victory in Nevada’s Republican caucus Tuesday and defeat front-runner Donald Trump.
Dan Pfeiffer, who became a top aide to Obama after serving as communications director for his 2008 presidential campaign, suggested on Tuesday that Trump’s flimsy ground operation in Nevada, combined with low voter turnout, could work to favor Rubio. The Florida senator finished second in South Carolina’s Republican primary last Saturday and has announced a slew of congressional endorsements in the past 48 hours.
It’s very possible Rubio wins NV, Trump has no political organization in a low turnout contest in a state without a long caucus tradition
— Dan Pfeiffer (@danpfeiffer) February 23, 2016
He added that Monday’s last-minute shakeup with Texas Sen. Ted Cruz’s campaign, when Cruz fired his communications director over the release of a false video attacking Rubio, could also benefit Rubio by signaling trouble in the Cruz campaign.
Cruz firing his spokesman the day before NV is the first panicky move from what heretofore has been a very disciplined campaign effort
— Dan Pfeiffer (@danpfeiffer) February 23, 2016
Trump’s weak ground game in New Hampshire and South Carolina didn’t prevent him from finishing first in either state’s primary, but in Iowa, where 8 percent of the voting-eligible population participated in the caucuses, Trump finished second and less than two percentage points ahead of Rubio. In Nevada, where approximately 33,000 voters participated in the 2012 Republican caucus, voter turnout is expected to be even less.
Trump has one final campaign rally scheduled in Sparks, Nevada, just hours before the caucuses begin Tuesday evening. A recent CNN/ORC survey of likely Republican caucus-goers showed Trump leading his opponents by 26 percent. Rubio followed in second with 19 percent support, while Cruz rounded out the top three at 17 percent.
