Afghan President Hamid Karzai warned Monday that his nation would spiral into civil war and see a resurgence of the Taliban if the U.S. led coalition fails to deliver billions of dollars in aid to his country each year well after a scheduled U.S. withdrawal in 2014. At the opening of the Bonn II conference in Germany, Monday, Karzai said, “The people of Afghanistan are looking to this conference for clear affirmation of commitment to make security transition and economic progress irreversible.” American officials who heard the comments said there was no doubt that “commitment” meant a steady gusher of U.S. dollars. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton promised that flow of cash would continue for at least a decade after the United States departs Afghanistan.
The conference was supposed to be a critical moment in evolving relations among the U.S., Afghanistan and Pakistan. But it was doomed before it started when Pakistan boycotted in protest over the U.S. airstrike that killed 24 Pakistani Army soldiers last month.
As a result, an opportunity to reach some accord for dealing with the Taliban in both Afghanistan and Pakistan will be missed, experts said.
“I really think there is unlikely to be any kind of break through at the Bonn Conference,” said Lisa Curtis, a former CIA analyst, who is now with The Heritage Foundation. “Pakistan’s decision to not attend the discussion hampers the process and hurts its own interests as well. We have not seen any signs that the Taliban leadership is ready for any reconciliation process because, honestly, we haven’t seen the leadership in Pakistan work for any compromise.”
In Pakistan, a growing anti-U.S. movement has made it difficult for progress on dealing with the Taliban, former Foreign Minister Shah Mehmood Qureshi told The Washington Examiner, in a phone interview Monday.
Qureshi who was actively involved in tri-lateral talks with the U.S. and Afghanistan during his tenure as foreign minister said the U.S. needs to move forward with more talks between the nations “to rebuild the trust that has been broken.”
“Pakistan is directly impacted by what happens in Afghanistan and Afghanistan is directly impacted by what happens in Pakistan,” said Qureshi, who was appointed Sunday as vice-chairman of Pakistan’s Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) political party. “Pakistan is a major player in the future of Afghanistan. However, we did not attend the conference because the people of our nation are still in rage, shocked over what happened with our innocent soldiers.”
Qureshi said that Pakistan’s parliament will hold a meeting next week to discuss issues from the Bonn conference and Afghanistan, stressing that despite tensions between the U.S. and Pakistan “we need each other.”
But Curtis said Pakistan should do more to demonstrate the U.S. actually does need them, and can trust them. “They should have to prove that they can play a positive role in the reconciliation process before we give them any more aid,” she said.
Promises by the international community at Bonn to continue its financial aid for Afganistan until 2024, were met with skepticism by Afghanistan — and by American officials who fear they’ll be left paying the entire check.
SClBA U.S. military official, who works closely with Afghan security forces, said billions of dollars will be needed to sustain the Afghan security forces, which are still struggling to become competent.
“The money has to come from somewhere until Afghanistan is ready to do it on their own, or the Afghan forces we’ve trained will fall apart,” the official said. “But Afghanistan needs to take ownership and start doing things for their own country instead of depending on others to do it for them.”
As for developmental aid, the U.S. donated roughly $3.2 billion last year but this year the aid has fallen to $2 billion, according to reports. Other aid has also suffered cutbacks as the U.S. economy has flagged.
“Many Afghan people don’t believe the U.S. will stand by their side after 2014,” said Afghan official, who spoke on condition that he not be named. “It’s a failure to deliver the message to the Afghan people. All the lives of U.S. and Afghan troops lost over the past 10 years should mean something but it feels like it is slipping from our hands.”
Secretary of State Hillary Clinton tried to allay those fears Monday. “United States intends to stay the course with our friends in Afghanistan,” she said. She added that as long as Afghanistan embraces reform and strengthens their democracy, the U.S. will back them for the long haul. “We will be there with you as you make the hard decisions that are necessary for your future,” she said.
Sara A. Carter is The Washington Examiner’s national security correspondent. She can be reached at [email protected].
