Encouraged by polls that show him gaining ground in traditionally Democratic states, Republican John McCain is vowing to campaign aggressively in such places as California.
“California can no longer be written off, in my view,” the presidential candidate told Fox News in an interview that aired Sunday. “And that means going to all parts of that state and reaching out to Hispanic voters, independents, others.”
Although polls show Democrats Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton still ahead of McCain by comfortable margins in California, they also indicate that half a dozen other states are moving toward McCain.
An analysis of the electoral map by former White House strategist Karl Rove shows that in the space of just two weeks, Virginia has moved from the “tossup” category into McCain’s column in a theoretical matchup with Obama. During that same period, polling cited by Rove shows that New Hampshire and Wisconsin, which had been Obama states, have become tossups.
The shift is even more pronounced in the hypothetical matchup between McCain and Clinton. Virginia, Missouri and Wisconsin have moved from tossups to McCain, while New Jersey, Oregon and Washington have moved from Clinton to tossups.
“All of these states, or most of them, are up for grabs,” McCain said. “I’m not sure that the old red state, blue state scenario that prevailed for the last several elections works.”
Rove concludes that if the election were held today, McCain would win 262 electoral votes (an increase of 31 since March 21), and Clinton would win 166 (a decrease of 33). The remaining 110 electoral votes are tossups, although McCain would need only eight to amass the 270 required to clinch the presidency.
The election would be closer if the matchup were McCain versus Obama. Rove concludes that McCain would win 241 electoral votes (an increase of 13), and Obama would win 205 (a decrease of 14). The remaining 105 electoral votes are tossups.
Although McCain acknowledges that “Senator Obama and Senator Clinton have energized the younger voters,” the 71-year-old cancer survivor has not ceded that demographic to the Democrats.
“I’ve got to compete on that ground, too,” he said. “That’s why I go on shows that young people watch.”
He was referring to programs such as CBS’s “Late Show with David Letterman,” on which McCain traded comic insults with the host last week. It was a moment of levity in an otherwise serious week of McCain fleshing out his biography by traveling to states where he grew up and served in the military.
McCain has managed to gain ground against the Democrats even as they raise more money. That’s because the Democrats are spending most of their money against each other, allowing McCain to remain largely above the fray.
