Every time a Republican senator breaks ranks and votes with the Democrats, Mitch McConnell cracks a smile.
This is exactly what the new Senate majority leader had in mind when he opened up the legislative process to more debate and amendment votes. In after action reports, Republican strategists said that a major driver behind the demise of Sen. Harry Reid’s Democratic majority in 2014 midterms was his extraordinary ability to keep his caucus unified on Senate votes and President Obama’s agenda.
Reid allowed few votes on Republican proposals in 2013 and 2014, a decision the Nevada Democrat blamed on GOP intransigence. But his strategy for keeping his caucus from splitting had a side effect: Democrats had virtually no opportunities to collaborate with Republicans and establish their independence — either from the party or from Obama. This turned out to be fatal blow to the Democrats in a battle for the Senate that was fought largely on Republican turf.
Ever the political tactician, Kentucky Republican McConnell is determined not to repeat Reid’s mistake in 2016, when the Senate battleground is likely to favor the Democrats.
“Two of the biggest vulnerabilities that Democrats faced last year were that they were rubber-stamps for the president and that they were contributing to the gridlock in Washington,” said Brian Walsh, a Republican operative who previously advised Senate Majority Whip John Cornyn, R-Texas. “By opening up the floor and re-establishing regular order, Sen. McConnell is helping to address both those issues, which will also benefit Republican senators up in 2016.”
McConnell knows the value of party unity as well as any congressional leader. It’s an important element of floor control and pushing major legislation over the finish line. There will be occasions when the Kentucky Republican has to crack the whip. He also is an institutionalist who no doubt had grown frustrated — like many senators on both sides of the aisle — with the lack of debate and amendment votes allowed under Reid.
But McConnell had more in mind than returning the Senate to its status as a chamber that operates on bipartisan cooperation.
In 2016, the Democrats need only flip five Republican-held seats to reclaim the majority, and they have plenty of juicy targets. Republican incumbents are running for re-election in Illinois, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin — all Democratic bulwarks in presidential cycles. Republican seats also are up for election in the battleground states of Florida, Iowa, Ohio, New Hampshire and North Carolina. McConnell wants to give vulnerable incumbents plenty of chances to diversify their voting records and avoid the “rubber-stamp” label.
Thus far in the 114th Congress, 42 floor votes have been held on amendments to legislation. Of those, 27 were votes on amendments sponsored by Democrats; 15 were votes on amendments sponsored by Republicans. During the debate over legislation to authorize construction of the Keystone XL oil pipeline, some Democratic amendments received Republican support, although not enough to pass. McConnell’s strategy came into sharp relief during a vote on a proposal from Sen. Brian Schatz, D-Hawaii.
The amendment, a sense of the Senate resolution stating that climate change is real and that human activity contributes to it, failed on a 50-49 vote (60 votes were required for passage.) But the Republicans who backed it included Sens. Kelly Ayotte of New Hampshire and Mark Kirk of Illinois, both of whom hail from states whose voters lean left on climate issues and could face tough re-election battles.
Republican Sens. Lamar Alexander of Tennessee and Lindsey Graham of South Carolina also backed the Schatz amendment. McConnell is looking to head off the opposite of what many Republicans are convinced ultimately sunk Democrats in 2014. Obama’s approval ratings were damaging, particularly given a red state battleground that would have favored Republicans under normal circumstances. But the rubber stamp attacks were a dagger, say Republicans who advised GOP candidates last cycle.
“Voters hate blind partisanship and Harry Reid chose to stick all his members with a 99 percent partisan voting record because they never had chances to stray,” said a Republican political consultant who advised GOP candidates in 2014. “The single most persuasive point we had in 2014 was the 90-plus percent number. Reid tied concrete blocks to the legs of his own people.”
The GOP needed to win six Democratic-held Senate seats to capture the majority, and six that were up for election were situated in deep red states that haven’t voted Democratic for president since the 1990s: Alaska, Arkansas, Louisiana, Montana, South Dakota and West Virginia. Also contested were Democratic-held seats in North Carolina, won by GOP presidential nominee Mitt Romney in 2012; as well as four more in the swing states of Colorado, Iowa, New Hampshire and Virginia.
Republicans picked up seats in all six red states, plus North Carolina, and two seats in presidential battlegrounds Colorado and Iowa. The GOP attacked Democratic incumbents over their votes for Obamacare, opposition to Keystone and numerous other issues designed to pique the ire of conservative red state voters and disgruntled swing state independents. And that was a contributing factor. But one attack was head and shoulders above the rest.
In North Carolina, incumbent Democrat Kay Hagan led narrowly until Election Day. She was credited with running one of the best campaigns of 2014, and Republicans were doubtful that Thom Tillis, then the state House speaker, would pull it out. But aside from the money that poured into North Carolina for Tillis in the final weeks, Republicans overwhelmingly ascribe his victory to a focused message that attacked Hagan for voting “with President Obama 96 percent of the time.”
“We used it relentlessly, and she never had a good response,” said a GOP operative who was on the ground in the Tar Heel State during the final month of the campaign.
