Weight of national expectations on McDonnell’s shoulders

Bob McDonnell could be forgiven for feeling like Atlas.

McDonnell has found himself running both a national and statewide campaign, with a task that extends beyond reversing a bruising trend for the Virginia Republican Party by claiming the governor’s mansion. Fairly or not, he’s been tasked with lifting the entire Republican brand out of the mud.

But McDonnell doesn’t seem to mind the weight on his shoulders.

“I certainly would like to be instrumental in helping to facilitate the resurgence of the conservative cause and demonstrating that our principles of limited government are best for all citizens,” McDonnell said. “I actually welcome that.”

The stakes are huge for both parties. Should he lose, McDonnell would round out a trio of Republican attorneys general who left their posts to run failed bids for governor, after Jerry Kilgore in 2005 and Mark Earley in 2001. He would also be the first Virginia Republican in three decades to lose the governor’s race during a Democratic presidency.

But a victory would carry “tremendous symbolic resonance” both in Virginia and nationally, said Bob Holsworth, a former Virginia Commonwealth University professor who runs the Web site Virginiatomorrow.com. It may, Holsworth said, carry meaning beyond the party itself.

“A lot of Republican conservatives hope that McDonnell can be that messenger, that he can be somebody who points to not only the revival of the GOP, but the continued vitality of conservatism at a time when people want to write it off,” Holsworth said.

McDonnell faces his old foil, Creigh Deeds, in a rematch of the 2005 attorney general race. But instead of sitting on the under card, Deeds and McDonnell are now at the center of the most closely watched race in the nation this year. While the possibility of Republican nominee Chris Christie knocking off incumbent Democratic Gov. Jon Corzine in New Jersey has tantalized the right, Virginia is more important territory. If the GOP can’t win there with a strong candidate, Republicans may have to accept that Virginia is out of reach.

Once reliably Republican in presidential elections, Virginia went big for Democrat Barack Obama last year. Three years ago, the commonwealth had two Republican senators, and now has none. If the trend continues, national Republicans will struggle to find a path back to relevance without the Old Dominion.

And the outcome will carry with it implications for the 2010 congressional midterm elections, which will signal the national mood ahead of the 2012 presidential race.

“While I embrace the challenge of helping the conservative cause nationally, I am going to be solely Virginia-focused in the race,” McDonnell said.

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