Jeb Bush declares for president on Monday, putting his advantages in campaign cash and political talent to the test in his bid for the Republican nomination.
The former two-term Florida governor has spent six months hiring experienced operatives and raising tens of millions of dollars for 2016 — far outpacing his competitors. Bush’s campaign is based in his hometown of Miami, and is bolstered by an equally flush super PAC that will operate from Los Angeles.
Team Bush is prepared for a long slog, convinced their candidate has the resources and broad appeal to outlast and outvote the deep and crowded GOP field.
“If you’re looking for glitz, that’s not his thing,” said Rep. Mario Diaz Balart of Florida, who has endorsed Bush. “If you want somebody that can seriously bring back the greatness of our country, who can get the economy really going, who can make sure that we are once again the strongest and most prosperous country in the world, he’s ready — and I think that will come across.”
“Everybody’s going to make mistakes; everybody’s going to have hiccups,” Diaz Balart added, tamping down the sky-high expectations that over-exuberant supporters, and some in the media, have set for Bush since he announced in December that he was considering a run for president. Bush is set to make it official Monday afternoon during a speech from the campus of Miami-Dade College in the Magic City, followed by campaign stops in some early primary states.
Like any presidential candidate, Bush, 62, has his share of challenges to overcome. Chief among them is his last name.
Bush’s brother, George W. Bush, preceded President Obama in office and wasn’t all that popular when he retired to Dallas. His father, George H.W. Bush, ousted by Democrat Bill Clinton in 1992, was the last Republican president in office prior to his brother. In a deep field of younger, fresher faces more connected to today’s Tea Party-infused GOP, at a time when voters frustrated with the political establishment, Bush’s legacy issues are particularly acute.
The problem reared its head in May when Bush had trouble answering a question about his brother’s decision to go to war in Iraq in 2003. Other candidates stumbled under similar questioning, but Bush received the most attention because of his familial relationship with the former president and expectation of all the 2016 contenders, he should have been the most prepared to answer questions about the unpopular Iraq conflict.
David Winston, a Republican pollster, said Bush could mitigate these complications going forward, but emphasized that he’ll have to work more aggressively than most to establish his own persona. Former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, Bill Clinton’s wife and the presumptive Democratic presidential nominee, could face a similar hurdle.
“The situation here for him is, in fact, how does he define himself in a way that shows he has a different unique perspective that not only distinguishes him from the other candidates but distinguishes him from his father and brother,” Winston said. “He needs a complete policy vision that is his unique vision.”
The governor’s team views the family dynasty issue as a legitimate challenge that, as a matter of political strategy, has to be addressed. But they’re confidant that Bush has more than enough strengths to compensate. The plan is to use the campaign’s ample resources to make sure that voters are fully aware of those strengths, and how they compare (favorably, in Bush’s view) to the rest of the field, by the time the voting starts next year.
The early primary states are viewed as critical.
Bush’s team is filled with operatives who have extensive experience in presidential campaigns, led by senior adviser Sally Bradshaw and newly appointed campaign manager Danny Diaz. None are under the impression that Bush can lose all four of the early states because he would presumably be able to afford to finance an extended battle for delegates. The campaign sees victory coming from a combination of at least one early state win and delegate hauls from states that vote later in the process — like Florida.
“We’re going to have the resources to make that case in the early caucus and primary states and beyond,” Bush campaign spokesman Tim Miller told the Washington Examiner on Friday.
The right wing of the Republican Party has looked askance at Bush at this early stage of the primary.
Beyond his last name and disdain for the party establishment, this could be because he supports Common Core national education standards, or because he backs comprehensive immigration reform that includes a path to legal residency for illegal immigrants. But Bush governed as among the more conservative chief executives in the country and presided over an era of economic growth in Florida during his tenure in Tallahassee.
He cut taxes multiple times, fought a Republican legislature to rein in state spending, pushed conservative education reforms and was staunchly pro-life on abortion and in sync with the GOP’s religious bloc on other key social issues. Broadcasting this positive message is going to fall in large measure on the shoulders of Bush’s super PAC, Right to Rise USA, run by veteran Bush adviser Mike Murphy.
Bush’s super PAC, which could begin with anywhere from $80 million to $100 million in seed money, will play a slightly different role than similar organizations in 2012. The super PAC supporting eventual GOP nominee Mitt Romney was mainly a carpet-bombing operation that ran negative television ads destroying his primary opponents. The Bush super PAC will do some of that, but will invest money in traditional and digital media with a focus on positive advertising.
Reports that Right to Rise USA would function as a shadow campaign that did it’s own get-out-the-vote field operations, and other work usually reserved for the official campaign, were incorrect, according to multiple sources. The super PAC is hoping to leverage its Los Angeles headquarters to stimulate outside-the box strategizing and avoid D.C. groupthink. For instance, the organization plans to work with Southern California Hispanic marketing firms to find creative ways to expand Bush’s reach.
“The primary mission of Right to Rise is to tell Jeb’s story by way of his conservative record in Florida and the positive vision he has for America,” a source familiar with super PAC strategy said.
New Hampshire, which votes second after Iowa and features an open primary that allows independents to participate, could offer Bush his best chance for a win in one of the first four primaries.
The style of campaigning that tends to pay dividends in the Granite State plays into Bush’s wheelhouse. He’s not the most dynamic of orators when delivering a speech. His strength is talking policy details during question and answer sessions, potentially a perfect fit for the unscripted, open-invite town hall meetings that are the bread and butter of campaigning in New Hampshire.
A win in New Hampshire would send Bush into the challenging but not insurmountable closed South Carolina primary with momentum.
That could be important because his prospects in the Iowa and Nevada caucuses, held first and fourth, respectively, are unclear, as these types of contests are usually dominated by conservative activists. Winning in South Carolina, or finishing strong, could boost him in the primaries that follow, particularly at home in Florida, where he could face Sen. Marco Rubio, a fellow Floridian who also calls Miami home.
Chip Felkel, a Republican operative in Greenville, S.C., who advised George W. Bush’s campaigns but is unaffiliated so far this cycle, said Jeb Bush begins the race in a solid, if not completely commanding position. According to the RealClearPolitics.com average of national polls, Bush led narrowly with 11.3 percent, followed by Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker at 10.8 percent, Rubio at 10.3 percent and retired pediatric neurosurgeon Ben Carson at 9 percent.
“It’s June 15. There’s a long way to go,” Felkel said.
Disclosure: The author’s wife works as an adviser to Scott Walker.
