As we prepare for 2018—which absolutely, positively, has to be better than 2017—we’ve followed the example of the great Chris Wallace and asked TWS staff for predictions for the coming year along four vectors: politics, sports, entertainment, and foreign policy.
Happy New Year!
* * *
2018 Predictions: Politics
William Kristol: Paul Ryan will not run for reelection to the House, and in any case Democrats will take the majority in November.
Stephen F. Hayes: With infrastructure, busting budget caps, and no attempt at serious entitlement reform, 2018 will see significant increases in spending—under unified Republican government.
Ethan Epstein: The #metoo movement will fell Joe Biden’s presidential bid before it can even get started in earnest. (Yes, he wants to run.) In the current moment, the former Veep won’t be able to withstand the white hot lights of scrutiny. He’ll also be hobbled by his status as a white male in a party that is increasingly hostile to them.
Jim Swift: Republicans keep the House and the Senate, but their majority is significantly diminished. In the Senate, it’s 50-50 with Mike Pence as tiebreaker. In the House, it’s a two-vote majority. And Roy Moore still hasn’t conceded.
Chris Deaton: Bill Mitchell will turn on President Trump.
Andrew Ferguson: President Donald J. Trump, after months of what he calls “some really, really fabulous” cognitive behavioral therapy, apologizes to the nation for “my irresponsible, unpresidential, and sometimes reprehensible personal and official conduct over the last 18 months—wait, no, what the hell, let’s call it the last 50 years.” He pledges to begin a strict regime of antipsychotic medication and American voters, overcome with relief and gratitude, expand the Republican majorities in both the House and Senate at the midterm elections.
Rachael Larimore: Republicans will lose the House and the Senate. Every candidate Steve Bannon backs will lose. Donald Trump will blame the establishment.
Mark Hemingway: In spite of the deeply held belief that the Republican tax reform bill will literally kill people, there will be no significant number of Americans who voluntarily pay higher tax rates as part of the #Resistance.
Alice B. Lloyd: Dwayne “The Rock” Johnson will turn up in Iowa. The former pro-wrestler is “seriously considering” running for president, he says. But unlike other opportunistic pols and wannabes, Future President Johnson’s state fair cameo will be completely charming. He’s just that lovely a guy.
Hannah Yoest: In addition to the opioid crisis, 2018 will be the year we see antibiotic resistance rise and pressure on pharmaceutical companies to innovate medicines/technology will come to a tipping point. All eyes should be on healthcare; we’re due for the next superbug plague.
Eric Felten: Donald Trump will officially change his middle name to Milhous.
Andrew Egger: Our desiccated political institutions will continue to shrivel and decay. Social media giants will continue along the track of banning alt-right voices from their platforms, but the effect will be cancelled by a corresponding uptick in breathless media coverage of those same voices. Donald Trump will declare he accomplished more in his first half-term than any president in history.
Jonathan V. Last: One sitting Democrat in the Senate will switch parties.
Adam Keiper: I’m not sure how she will be dispatched, but by the end of the year, the president will no longer be in the Oval Office. I imagine it will have less to do with the processes established under rule of law than with the blood and violence we have come to expect from this administration. We should all celebrate the end of the grotesque parade of disgraces and abuses we’ve been witnessing. (Please click the link before you email or tweet about this.)
John McCormack: There are two sure political bets next year: (1) On October 18, 2018 at 3:23 p.m. the stock market will crash, wiping out the yuge gains of the Trump boom and sealing the fate of the GOP in the midterm elections. (2) Pundits and political reporters will foolishly continue to try to predict the future with confidence. God will laugh.