1. The Republican horse race for president
As many as 20 Republicans might be interested in running for president. If only half of them end up launching bids, 2015 will be a wild ride — and one that could shape the future of the GOP for years to come. One important question with such a wide field will be whether the Republican Party can rein in the primary process, as it has sought to do in this election cycle, or whether the nominating contest will run off the tracks. After 2014, when the Republican Establishment stifled Tea Party insurgents, candidates repping the conservative wing of the party might be eager to fight back.
2. The success or failure of congressional Republicans
The mantra for congressional Republicans this year could very well be “Do no harm.” Of course, the first fully Republican-controlled Congress since 2006 will have grander ambitions than that: In the first few months of the year, lawmakers hope to approve the Keystone XL pipeline, undercut the president’s executive action on immigration, craft an ambitious budget and perhaps tackle tax reform. But just as Republicans have been hamstrung by intraparty conflict in the past, they will face that challenge moving forward. “I hope we don’t get derailed by anger,” one Republican member of Congress told the Washington Examiner.
3. President Obama’s next move
President Obama promised 2014 would be his “year of action,” and he delivered by reaching a climate accord with China, restoring relations with Cuba and taking executive actions on issues including immigration reform and the climate. But the president also sidelined Congress in the process, a dynamic that might be difficult to maintain with congressional Republicans acting as a stronger counterweight to the White House. In 2015, the president might choose to be an adversary to Congress, or to work with Republican leaders — and his decision could be prologue to the next Democratic presidential candidate.
4. Is it the economy, stupid?
For years, the political discourse in Washington and on the campaign trail has centered on the economy and jobs. But the economy has been steadily rebounding and unemployment is down — posing the question, what will drive the political conversation in 2015? Perhaps it will be foreign policy and national security, in particular if Hillary Clinton is a presidential candidate. Immigration is another contender. One thing is certain: Politicians will need to rethink their talking points in the year to come.
5. Can anyone challenge Hillary Clinton?
Hillary Clinton, absent from the presidential campaign stage, has found her political footing and will begin 2015 as a prohibitive front-runner for president among Democrats and a commanding one when stacked up against potential Republican comers. Whether Clinton will be able to maintain her dominance will depend as much on her campaign rollout in 2015 as it will those of her would-be challengers.
