What do Republican voters in early nominating states think about the minimum wage?
Oxfam America and McLaughlin and Associates have released a poll just in time for Labor Day that purports to show “political benefits for candidates that support an increase in the federal minimum wage” among likely GOP voters and likely general election voters.
Only three of the major GOP presidential candidates — retired neurosurgeon Ben Carson, Ohio Gov. John Kasich, and former Pennsylvania Sen. Rick Santorum — have publicly expressed support for increasing the federal minimum wage now. In national surveys of GOP primary voters, Carson polls in second place. Kasich finishes eighth, according to RealClearPolitics average of national polls. And Santorum, who won the 2012 GOP Iowa caucuses, has struggled to maintain one percentage point of support in national polls of GOP primary voters.
Would others be wise to follow in their footsteps? John McLaughlin, who has conducted polls for several former GOP presidential candidates and former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush, conducted the poll on the minimum wage and thinks the answer is yes.
“Being open to reasonable increases in the federal minimum wage can help 2016 candidates, Republicans as well as Democrats, appeal to voters,” said pollster John McLaughlin in a statement. “By including a federal minimum wage increase as part of a larger economic vision, candidates keep their core supporters reach new audiences, while not alienating a significant number of swing state general election voters.”
“Reasonable increases” is a subjective term that the poll uses as open to wide interpretation. The poll claims, “a majority of New Hampshire GOP primary and Iowa GOP caucus voters support at least one proposal to increase the federal minimum wage,” including 58 percent of GOP voters in Iowa and 59 percent of Republicans in New Hampshire. The “reasonable increases” that the majority of respondents had an opportunity to choose from included various dollar amounts: $9, $10, $12, or $15.
The poll also shows that two-thirds of likely general election voters are more likely to vote for a candidate who supports increasing the minimum wage, and 87 percent of general election voters would support “at least one proposal for a federal minimum wage increase.”
“Regardless of party, it’s clear that voters want to see candidates support reasonable increases in the federal minimum wage. Candidates who understand that this is in fact not a partisan issue stand to be rewarded generously by voters,” said Jeffrey Buchanan, senior domestic policy advisor at Oxfam America that commissioned the poll, in a statement. “Six years since the last increase in the federal minimum wage, American families are hurting. With tens of millions voters feeling the impact of wage stagnation, it makes political, economic and moral sense for all 2016 candidates to support a reasonable increase in the minimum wage.”
Most Republican candidates’ economic messages harp on wage stagnation, and some choose to focus on pursuing a “maximum wage” instead, such as former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee and former Texas Gov. Rick Perry. GOP front-runner Donald Trump has said he thinks “having a low minimum wage is not a bad thing for this country,” and that he would choose to keep the federal minimum wage, “pretty much where it is right now.”
Carson, however, has said he thinks the federal minimum wage should probable be higher than it is now and noted, “In several states you can get as much or more on government assistance as you can by working on a minimum wage job.”
Carson has not made raising the minimum wage a focal point of his campaign as he has soared to second place nationally. Santorum, meanwhile, has routinely championed his populist economic message, which includes raising the minimum wage. Santorum promoted his desire to raise the minimum wage on Real Time with Bill Maher last weekend — an issue where he and fellow panelist Wendy Davis, a former Democratic candidate for governor of Texas, found agreement.
Kasich reportedly supported a “reasonable” minimum wage hike while on the campaign trail in Michigan on Tuesday, but did not provide specifics saying, “I wouldn’t get into numbers right now.”
“You could have unintended consequences if you start imposing a high wage, which could actually lead to fast-food restaurants putting in kiosks and middle-management people being upset that they can’t get a raise,” Kasich said.
Carson and Santorum appear to be located on opposite ends of the polls, while Kasich finds himself located comfortably in between. As Labor Day approaches, Carson, Kasich and Santorum’s separation from the rest of the field on the issue of the minimum wage could become even more pronounced.
