You’re worried. Okay, you’re alarmed. Actually, you’re panicked. Donald Trump will be the nominee and destroy the party. It’s embarrassing for the GOP that Ben Carson has so much support. Marco Rubio will be judged by voters too young and inexperienced for the Oval Office. Ted Cruz would be a certain loser to Hillary Clinton. And it’s too late for someone else to come from behind and win the nomination. All scenarios lead to disaster.
Not to worry. All will be well . . . probably.
First and foremost, we will likely be spared a Trump nomination. In the latest national poll, taken at the end of November by Quinnipiac, Trump leads the GOP field with 27 percent, 10 points ahead of Rubio at 17 percent, 11 ahead of Carson and Cruz. It’s fair to point out that he’s not quite fading, as we hoped and anticipated he would be by this point. On the other hand, in Quinnipiac polls over the previous three months, Trump has registered 24, 25, and 24 percent. In other words, he’s at a plateau — a high plateau, but not high enough to get him nominated. And other surveys show him with fewer second-choice supporters than his rivals.
Furthermore, when Quinnipiac asked whether voters’ minds were made up, more than half of the Trump supporters said they might change their mind. It’s true that Trump has a somewhat higher percentage of committed supporters than the other candidates. Still, this means Trump’s solid support is around 13 percent of the Republican primary electorate. And while Trump has defied gravity so far, it’s hard to believe that, as voting gets closer, his support will go up rather than down. He may win a few early primaries against a splintered field (though we wouldn’t bet on that). He’s very unlikely to be the nominee.
What about Ben Carson? He’s also unlikely to be the nominee, especially as foreign policy becomes a more central issue. But he’s an admired figure, not just among Republicans but among the electorate as a whole, with a 40-33 percent favorability rating (Trump, by contrast, is at 35-57, tied with Jeb Bush for the worst rating). Having Ben Carson in the mix for a few more months probably helps the overall image of the GOP. And if Carson surprises and convinces voters he’s not just a good man but the man for the job, he’ll go into the general election as a strong candidate.
What of Marco Rubio? He has the strongest favorability ratings among the Republican contenders, at 37-28, and trails Clinton by one, 45-44, in Quinnipiac’s matchup. Voters seem so far not to be holding his youth and inexperience against him, and there’s no reason to think they will start doing so if he keeps performing well.
Rubio’s biggest problem isn’t the general election. It’s the fact that — to take the latest Quinnipiac poll again — 62 percent of the vote goes to Trump, Carson, Cruz, Huckabee, and Paul, whom we might call the antiestablishment candidates. Only 29 percent of voters support Rubio, Jeb Bush, Chris Christie, Carly Fiorina, and John Kasich, who might be considered establishment-friendly. Rubio will have to guard against allowing himself to be labeled as the establishment candidate.
As for Ted Cruz, if he were to win the nomination, isn’t he sure to lose the general election? No. He does trail Hillary Clinton, 47-42, when Quinnipiac matches them up. On the other hand, his favorability-unfavorability among the general electorate is 33-33, better than Clinton’s 44-51. This suggests that a Cruz-Clinton race would be very competitive — especially when one factors in Obama’s current 44-51 job approval in Quinnipiac. If Clinton’s favorability rating and Obama’s job approval don’t improve, the White House will be winnable by an acceptable Republican. Cruz’s 33-33 is acceptable. And he’s proving to be a very able candidate who’s getting better as he campaigns — in marked contrast with Hillary Clinton.
Could someone else barge into the GOP Final Four? It’s been such an unpredictable and fluid race so far that it would be foolish to say it couldn’t happen. And two-thirds of Republicans in the Quinnipiac poll say they could still change their minds. Of the long shots, Chris Christie has the best chance, because his plainspoken toughness combined with governing experience could provide an alternative not represented in the current Big Four. If Christie (or anyone else) is a good enough candidate to win the nomination after being so far behind, he would be, almost by definition, a formidable general election competitor.
The November 2016 forecast for the GOP is for clear and sunny skies — even if the intervening months will have overcast days and even drenching thunderstorms. So put the Valium back in the medicine cabinet. Enjoy the holiday season. The 2016 election should put us on a path to making America great again — without nominating Donald Trump.
