Five large suburban counties comprising 11 percent of Texas’ population could decide the Democratic primary on Tuesday and determine whether Barack Obama wins the nomination or has to fight on until Pennsylvania or beyond.
“That is the key to this election, the heavy voting in suburban areas,” said University of Houston political scientist Dick Murray, adding that Hillary Clinton and Obama are likely to run about even in the rest of the state. “How these suburban residents are going to vote is a big question mark.”
These suburbs include Collin and Denton counties, north of the Dallas–Fort Worth metropolitan area, as well as Williamson County, outside of Austin, and Montgomery and Fort Bend counties on the outskirts of Houston.
Early voter turnout has been heavy in the five counties, which have a combined population of more than 2.5 million people.
The stakes couldn’t be higher. Former President Bill Clinton has said that his wife must capture Texas and Ohio if she is to remain a viable candidate. If she wins both, Mrs. Clinton will likely take the fight to the Pennsylvania primary on April 22.
Obama appeared in Austin and Fort Worth on Thursday, working to boost voter turnout in two of four major urban areas in Texas that will likely turn out majorities for him. Clinton campaigned in Ohio and was scheduled to fly to Texas last night to deliver a speech in Houston
In Montgomery County, 40 miles north of downtown Houston, there are no elected Democrats and most of the population is white. About 14 percent of residents are black and 10 percent are Hispanic. Despite the dominance of the GOP here, election officials report heavy Democratic turnout in some areas, which suggests that Republicans are casting votes for Obama or Clinton, which is permitted in Texas’ open primary.
“I think it will be really close here between Clinton and Obama,” said Montgomery County Commissioner Ed Chance, a few minutes after talking to a Republican friend who had just voted in the Democratic primary.
Murray said that some polling data indicate that up to 20 percent of early Democratic primary votes in these suburban areas have been cast by people identifying themselves as Republicans and that they voted for Obama by a margin of 25 percent.
“The white vote has always been more evenly divided between Hillary and Obama,” said Southern Methodist University professor Cal Jillison, “although Obama seems to be making some headway there.”
While Obama has beaten Clinton among white male voters in recent primaries, Clinton has an edge among the white women and won overwhelmingly among older women.
“If she gets big support from the younger and older women, that could turn the deal in her favor,” Murray said.
