“You’re my type of guy,” President Donald Trump is reported to have told the Czech President Miloš Zeman, a fervent critic of Muslim immigration into Europe and an avowed Trump admirer, in a phone conversation held before POTUS’ inauguration. To his chagrin, however, the Czech head of state was not invited to the White House in the first year of Trump’s presidency, probably due to Zeman’s close ties to Russia. And if opinion polls and betting markets are anything to go by, the presidential election run-off this Saturday will put a final end to Trump and Zeman’s brief, if affectionate, relationship.
If immigration from Muslim-majority countries has been a hot topic since the refugee crisis of 2015, it does not seem to be enough to buy President Zeman—who once called Islam “anti-civilization” and compared the Muslim world to Nazi Germany—a second term in office. For one, the Muslim population in the Czech Republic is minuscule—by all accounts fewer than 20 thousand people (only 3358 individuals self-identified as Muslim in the 2011 Census)—and well-integrated.
Second, the refugee wave of 2015 and Angela Merkel’s Willkommenskultur are largely a thing of the past. As European leaders are trying to rebuild the EU’s asylum system, they appear far more conscious of the sensitivities surrounding immigration questions, especially in ‘New Europe.’ As a result, Zeman’s rhetoric is becoming a little stale. More acutely, his flaws are becoming more evident, even among those who favor tighter immigration and asylum policies.
In fact, the ability of the Czech head of state to shape immigration and asylum policy is minimal. In contrast, the role carries an important foreign policy component. Over his term, Zeman counted among the most loyal defenders of the Kremlin’s interests in Europe. A regular at Vladimir Yakunin’s Rhodes Forum, the Czech president has used every opportunity—including his most recent trip to Moscow in November 2017—to argue that the EU’s sanctions against Russia need to be scrapped. His senior advisor and campaign manager, Martin Nejedlý, not only lacks a security clearance but also served as CEO of the Czech branch of Lukoil, after returning to the Czech Republic from Russia where he lived throughout much of the 1990s.
Fostering economic ties with China is also on President Zeman’s list of priorities. Although trade and investment links between the two countries are limited, the Chinese government has successfully used them (with the help of the likes of Zeman) to build political leverage over Central Europe. As a result, successive Czech governments have steered away from subjects of human rights and Tibet, commonly raised by the most famous of Zeman’s predecessors, Václav Havel. The current president even appointed Ye Jianming, the chairman of CEFC, an opaque investment entity with ties to China’s Communist Party, as his economic advisor.
Zeman’s public image has been harmed also by his visible physical decline. The 73-year old chain smoker and heavy drinker suffers from a severe diabetic neuropathy, making it difficult for him to walk even the shortest distances. The avuncular jokes, once central to his appeal, sound increasingly unhinged – like his remark about “liquidating” journalists at his meeting with Vladimir Putin in May 2017. As a result, even if his challenger, Jiří Drahoš, comes across as somewhat bland, he is able to strike a much more dignified presidential pose than Zeman.
There are precedents in the region for centrist political outsiders like Drahoš, a chemistry professor and former head of Czech Academy of Sciences, rising to the highest office of state. In Slovakia, Andrej Kiska, a businessman and philanthropist with no prior political experience, defeated Prime Minister Robert Fico in the presidential election in 2014 and became the country’s most popular political figure, firmly committed to Slovakia’s place in Europe and in the Western world. Though mostly symbolic, a victory of Drahoš on Saturday would go a long way towards restoring a sense of normalcy in region, which has been thrown off balance by the rise of authoritarian populism, amplified by the political fallout from the refugee crisis of 2015.
By any account, the election is going to be a tight race. Though the Czech Republic has avoided the authoritarian and nationalist turn taken by Poland and Hungary, the Czechs also count among the most Euroskeptic member states, distrustful of common institutions and refusing the join the Eurozone, in spite of their tight economic links to Germany. If the country is to avoid another five years of gaffes and cozying up to authoritarians, Drahoš will need to tread very carefully over the next few days.
Dalibor Rohac is a research fellow at the American Enterprise Institute. Twitter: @DaliborRohac.
