With the clock running out on this year’s presidential campaign and the momentum favoring Democrat Barack Obama, the rush is on among some political pundits and the news media to declare the race over.
But political experts and Obama himself warned Thursday the final days could still hold surprises.
“We are 19 days away from changing this country. Nineteen days. But for those who are getting a little cocky, I’ve got two words for you: New Hampshire,” Obama said, referring to his primary loss there after winning in Iowa. “I learned right here, with the help of my great friend and supporter Hillary Clinton, that you can’t let up or pay too much attention to the polls.”
At this late stage in the race, a big concern for candidates and the parties is keeping voters motivated to turn out on Election Day. The risk of a foregone conclusion could suppress turnout, shifting dynamics in the presidential contest and hurting candidates in down-ballot races.
Even so, many insist GOP nominee John McCain is finished. “It’s over,” was the opening line in a Boston Globe column after Wednesday’s debate, under the headline “That’s it for McCain.” The piece echoed sentiments expressed in other news media and especially on cable, where pundits have been predicting an Obama victory.
“It’s a little early to declare it all over, in my mind,” said Aubrey Jewett, a political scientist at the University of Central Florida. “The collapsing economy, the first major black candidate — there are a few things outstanding and we don’t know exactly how they will play out.”
Ronald Reagan in late October 1980 was trailing President Jimmy Carter in the polls, 47 percent to 39 percent, accord to Gallup. After a strong debate performance close to Election Day, Reagan improved his standing and won by a decisive margin.
Although it’s unlikely McCain will be able to pull that kind of an upset, Stephen Hess, a political scientist at the Brookings Institution, said possibilities remain that a gaffe by Obama or some late-breaking scandal could push the race in a different direction.
“But I do sense that the campaign is down to the fundamentals, it’s all leading in one direction,” Hess said. “It was always going to be difficult for the in-party candidate to win.”
As for the rush to judgment on the outcome, he added, “I’ve been doing it myself.”
