House Democrats are bracing for the worst ahead of Tuesday’s midterm elections, as Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee Chairman Steve Israel hinted his party, which already has a 34-member disadvantage to Republicans in the chamber, may lose even more seats.
“In any president’s second midterm election, the president’s party loses seats. The historic average is 29 seats,” the New York lawmaker told MSNBC’s Jose Diaz-Balart on Friday, suggesting Democrats face a similar prospect in the House next week.
“Even Ronald Reagan at the height of his popularity in his second midterm, he lost seats. It’s kind of natural. History says that the president’s party has tough terrain.”
Most political experts and polling predict that Democrats will lose a small handful of seats. National pollster Larry Sabato, for example, predicts Republicans will pickup nine seats. Democrats would need to win 17 seats to gain control of the House.
Even House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi, D-Calif., has sounded less than optimistic about her party’s chances on Election Day, telling reporters earlier this month that while she hopes Democrats can retake the House, “this fall it’s important for us to come as close to that as possible.”
Israel blamed “global issues” such as the rise of the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria and the Ebola virus for overshadowing the Democratic Party’s message.
“Democrats beat Republicans on virtually every issue of middle class security … [But] it’s difficult to break through on those issues where Democrats win when those global issues are dominating the news cycle,” he said.
Israel said Democratic House candidates have countered by engaging in an aggressive grassroots “precinct by precinct, house by house” ground game to get their message out.
“We’ve adjusted by going trench warfare,” he said.
As for Democrats running in traditionally non-Democratic districts, Israel said it’s OK for his candidates to distance themselves, on occasion, from President Obama.
“The districts where we’re competing, they’re purple, they’re in the middle. And most people in those districts agree with the president on some things, may disagree with him on other things,” the chairman said. “I say to my candidates, just be those people, state your agreements with the president when you agree with him, state your disagreements with the president when you disagree, but reflect the priorities and the sensibilities of the congressional district you are representing or want to represent.”
Despite the challenges, Israel said he expects “a lot of surprises” in both House and Senate elections on Tuesday.
“The day after story will be that neither party expected to see the results that we saw,” he said. “I think we’re going to be looking at a lot of recounts in the Senate, maybe some runoffs. So the final chapter of the … midterm elections may not be written until December or January.”
