On the eve of the presidential primary season, Sen. Hillary Clinton’s latest Gallup poll “unfavorable” rating is 48 percent, a number that will scotch her presidential aspirations, according to Karl Rove, President Bush’s outgoing political wizard.
Rove maintains that the former first lady is “fatally flawed” as a candidate.
Not everyone agrees with that assessment, but Clinton’s disapproval rating as of Aug. 16 is indeedalarmingly high — higher than those of any candidate who has won his party’s nomination in recent history, including her husband Bill Clinton.
“She has a very divisive image, there is no doubt about that,” Gallup Editor-in-Chief Frank Newport said, noting that Bill Clinton had a disapproval rating of 37 percent eight months before he won the presidency and never reached the high 40s. But he added, “I don’t think that means she is fatally flawed.”
Newport pointed out that disapproval ratings for President Bush were 47 percent in January 2004, just 10 months before he won a second term.
“It’s not unusual that candidates can reach the mid-40s range, roughly where she is now,” Newport said.
Her disapproval ratings are higher than those of Sen. John Kerry in the days leading up to the 2004 election (45 percent) and Al Gore (42 percent) just prior to the 2000 presidential election.
“No one with her level of negativity has won the nomination, let alone let alone the White House,” University of Texas political science professor Bruce Buchanan said.Rove said on CBS’s Face the Nation on Sunday that Clinton will have a difficult time changing her public image, because so many people have already formed an opinion about her.
But that could work to her advantage, according to pollster Scott Rasmussen.
“While Clinton’s numbers will not move as much as others, it’s not clear if that’s a plus or a minus,” Rasmussen said. “Senator [Barak] Obama and former Senator [John] Edwards could see their numbers move in either direction as the campaign unfolds. So, they have both a bigger upside and a bigger downside.”
If she makes it to the general election, Rasmussen said, “it is hard to see her getting less than 45% of the vote. Barring a total collapse of the GOP candidate, it is hard to see her getting to the 50% level.”
Clinton said during an ABC News-sponsored debate on Sunday that her negative numbers were a product of GOP attacks.
“The idea that you’re going to escape the Republican attack machine and not have high negatives by the time they’re through with you, I think, is just missing what’s been going on in American politics for the last 20 years,” Clinton said.
