Less than a week before Maryland’s first battleground presidential primary in recent memory, Democrats and Republicans agree on one thing: economic issues will dominate.
Maryland residents, still reeling from more than $1.3 billion in tax increases passed during a special legislative session in November, are now bracing for cuts in services that are needed to close the remainder of a $1.7 billion projected budget deficit. Top state officials in both parties said registered voters are most concerned about the economy, followed by the Iraq War.
Pollster Steve Raabe, president of OpinionWorks, said Maryland politics is often driven by a large African-American vote, which accounts for about one-third of the Democratic electorate. Raabe said early January polling had Barack Obama leading Hillary Clinton 39 percent to 26 percent, and that Obama likely still leads.
University of Maryland political science professor Ronald Walters, who was deputy director of the Rev. Jesse Jackson‘s national campaign in 1984, said the strong, if ultimately unsuccessful, Senate campaigns of black candidates like former U.S. Rep. Kweisi Mfume and former Lt. Gov. Michael Steele show that Maryland voters can get beyond race.
University of Maryland professors say they’ve also seen a huge Obama campaign presence on campus.
Sen. Hillary Clinton gained the support of Gov. Martin O’Malley last May. Sen. Barbara Mikulski and many other female elected officials and women’s organizations across the state are working hard on Clinton’s behalf. But many other state leaders have rushed to line up behind Obama, including Attorney General Douglas Gansler and State Comptroller Peter Franchot. Raabe said Obama could lose ground quickly.
“Keep in mind that people really admire Hillary Clinton,” Raabe said. “People who tend to vote in primaries tend to be over the median age and she has the senior vote on her side.”
Republicans, who make up 28 percent of registered voters in Maryland’s primary, were backing Sen. John McCain by a wide margin during Raabe’s poll last month, and Raabe thinks that is probably still the case. He notes, however, that Maryland voters are showing “low enthusiasm” for all Republican candidates.
“There was no evidence at the time we were in the field that any one of the Republican candidates was developing an emotional bond with voters,” Raabe said.
Maryland
– Registered voters:
3,135,773
– Men: 48.4%
Women: 51.6%
– White: 58.4%
Black: 29.5%
Hispanic: 6.0%
Asian: 4.9%
– Republicans: 28.4%
Democrats: 55.3%
– Democratic delegates: 99
Republican delegates: 37
– Recent presidential votes
2000:
Bush: 40%
Gore: 57%
2004:
Bush: 43%
Kerry: 56%
