President Obama’s strategy for closing on health care relies on blaming the insurance industry, reminding Americans that coverage is a problem and urging public opinion to shift momentum in Congress.
Not part of the equation: What if he loses?
“No Democrat wants to contemplate it and certainly no one in the administration, because the consequences are too frightful,” said Stephen Hess, a presidential scholar at the Brookings Institution.
The White House this week is stepping up pressure on congressional Democrats in a final drive to get reform on the books. In two rallies this week, Obama is hoping to turn public opinion back his way.
Last week’s largely foregone conclusion about the Democrats using a parliamentary maneuver to pass reform with simple majorities is looking increasingly difficult.
“This one he has to win,” said Hess, who added he believes Obama will prevail. “He has backed himself into that position.”
If Obama fails on health care, the fallout could be significant. The rest of his agenda makes health care look easy: controlling air pollution, tackling immigration reform, reforming education, relocating detainees from Guantanamo Bay prison, creating jobs and more.
Doubling down on health care and losing could cost Obama politically and dismantle his image as a reformer. It could squander the majorities he was elected with and raise doubts about his leadership.
Those Democrats in Congress who take a risk to support him could wind up losing their jobs. One-third of the Senate seats and all of the House are up for election in November, a factor the White House is downplaying.
“I don’t think it’s going to cost Democrats the House,” White House press secretary Robert Gibbs told ABC News. “It will be something that Democrats can be proud to run on in November.”
But polls show a year’s debate of health care has cost Obama the popular support he once had for reform. A majority of Americans in several polls said they oppose the plan and Obama’s handling of the issue.
“He has projected the most ambitious agenda across the board of any president in recent memory,” said Joe Tuman, a political scientist at San Francisco State University. “I remember thinking ‘If he gets even one of these things done in eight years it will be a major accomplishment.'”
Even so, Tuman said, a loss would force Obama to start governing from the center and forge coalitions with independent Democrats and moderate Republicans.
“He has to some degree called Republicans on their bluff, saying if we are wrong on health care we’ll find out in the election,” Tuman said.
Obama leaves next week for an overseas trip to Guam, Indonesia and Australia, and the White House wants House members to pass the Senate version of the reform bill by then.
So far, the administration has steered clear of confirming various reports of a slimmer, less-expensive Plan B in the works if comprehensive health care reform fails.
“We’ve been working on any number of issues for many months relating to health insurance reform,” Gibbs said.
