Republicans who fear their party is barreling toward either Ted Cruz or Donald Trump as the GOP presidential nominee are torn.
Do they side with the Cruz, the Texas senator in whom they have absolutely no trust, but who, of the two, best represents the conservative values and policies the Republican Party is supposed to stand for? Or, do they side with Trump, the populist celebrity businessman from New York who they fear could end the GOP as a vehicle for conservative governance and damage the party’s brand with American voters for generations?
It’s shaping up to be a real “Sophie’s Choice” for the so-called establishment, or governing, wing of the party. “I’m shirts and skins type of guy. I’ll support the nominee no matter who it is. But I worry. Cruz loses us the Senate; Trump might lose us the party,” said a GOP lobbyist who is backing one of the other candidates.
This week, Cruz’s Republican colleagues in the Senate have publicly aired their reservations about a Cruz nomination, while expressing cautious optimism that Trump might not be as bad a general election nominee as they had previously feared. Those pronouncements have been made by sage voices like Sen. Orrin Hatch of Utah and 1996 Republican presidential nominee Bob Dole, who has endorsed former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush.
That doesn’t mean that a rush to curry favor with Trump, the front-runner in most state and national polls, is underway. In the Senate, Republicans’ animosity toward Cruz has to be understood in context. Cruz made a name for himself by accusing Senate (and House) Republicans of corruption and cowardly colluding with President Obama over voters’ objections. Last year, Cruz called Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell of Kentucky a liar on the chamber floor.
Yes, congressional Republicans worry that Cruz’s ideological inflexibility and confrontational personality could doom the party in 2016 with women and minorities, sinking their chances of holding their vulnerable Senate majority. And yes, they’re hopeful that Trump could attract white working-class voters who usually vote Democrat to the GOP, and that as president, they would be able to mold his agenda since he lacks any coherent ideology and prizes deal making above all else.
But none of those fears about Cruz, and hopes about Trump, are as strong as many congressional Republicans’ personal distrust and outright hatred for the Texan, based on their dealings with him on Capitol Hill. In essence, this is payback, although the story line is great for Cruz, a candidate who markets himself as the establishment’s worst nightmare. Supporting Cruz “would be a major challenge because of the wounds that are deep,” Sen. Dan Coats told CNN.
“An awful lot of us really didn’t like to be targeted as corrupt, establishment bought by the lobby establishment,” the Indiana Republican said. “It sure looks like someone was using it as a way to gain notoriety as the only true conservative in Washington.”
The Republican establishment is much bigger than Congress, however.
Across the party, deep-pocketed donors, veteran party operatives and lobbyists are prepared to back Cruz if candidates like Sen. Marco Rubio of Florida and others fall hopelessly behind and exit the race.
To begin with, there’s no real movement toward Cruz — or Trump — because Republican insiders are not convinced the race is over. Voting starts with the Iowa caucuses on Feb. 1. Cruz and Trump are in a dogfight for first there; New Hampshire votes Feb. 9. Trump leads there, and there’s a traffic jam of establishment-aligned candidates duking it out for second and third. GOP players who have picked sides haven’t given up on their horse.
They’re waiting to see how the race to be the non-Cruz/Trump shakes out. True, outside of movement conservative circles, veteran Republican influencers dislike Cruz and don’t appreciate his tactics. His 2013 effort to shut down the government in a bid to force Obama to halt the implementation of the Affordable Care Act still rankles. But they see eye to eye with Cruz on most issues, and are likely to side with him over Trump for that reason.
Their concern about Trump runs deep. He is a nationalist who is suspicious of free trade and free markets, and supports an isolationist foreign policy — basically the opposite of what they believe a conservative party is supposed to stand for. And even though Cruz and Trump have similar views on immigration, even Cruz hasn’t used crude terms to describe illegal immigrants or called for them to be forcibly rounded up and deported.
“No, I don’t intend to send jackboots to knock on your door and every door in America. That’s not how we enforce the law for any crime,” Cruz told CNN’s Jake Tapper earlier this month.
Indeed, a new super PAC, Our Principles PAC, debuted this week that was formed with the express purpose of taking down Trump. The group, run by a former aide to 2012 GOP presidential nominee Mitt Romney, reported spending $45,000 on direct mail ads attacking Trump in Iowa. The expenditure represents the first money spent against the frontrunner since at least Jan. 1, according to Federal Election Commission filings.
Robert C. O’Brien, a former adviser to Romney and Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker who is now neutral in the race, predicted that most establishment-oriented Republicans would come around to Cruz if their only other choice was Trump. Additional sources say that that includes Republicans on K Street. It’s not necessarily an easy choice for many to make, and some would go the other way. But Cruz would ultimately win the competition for the insiders crowd he has so disparaged.
“Many of them, with whom I have spoken recently, are prepared to support Senator Cruz if one of the establishment candidates, especially Senator Rubio, does not break out in New Hampshire or South Carolina,” said O’Brien, an attorney and major donor from Los Angeles. “Cruz is a Senator, he is a reliable conservative and he is very smart. Others will gravitate toward Trump, who is the national front runner. My expectation is that if this race turns into a two man race, Trump v. Cruz, Cruz will, at the end of the day, attract most of the establishment support.”
