COLUMBUS, OHIO — Ohio plays a leading role in America’s political story – the pre-eminent swing state, nestled in the heart of the Midwest. It was central in Democrats’ takeover of Congress in 2006 and in Obama’s win in 2008. That’s why Republicans nationwide are looking to the Buckeye State as the potential bellwether of a hoped-for electoral landslide, including a takeover of the U.S. House.
But here in Ohio, the outlook is more cautious. Republican gains will be significant, but analysts who expect a blowout across the state and nation often aren’t looking at individual races. While the national mood will matter immensely, it will be 435 individual House races that actually determine whether Ohioan John Boehner becomes speaker.
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And winning “generic” races is easier than winning specific races.
Take sophomore Democratic congressmen Zack Space and Betty Sutton. In the abstract, both candidates should lose this year. In reality, both are still favorites.
Space holds a rural Republican district, and he voted for the health care bill. George W. Bush carried this district by 14 points in 2004, and McCain — while losing statewide — won Space’s district by 8 points.
But Space, an All-American football player from Kenyon College and an alumnus of Ohio State law school, fits the district. Republicans grudgingly describe Space as charismatic, likable, and skilled at constituent services. Most importantly, he has the NRA’s endorsement.
Sutton, meanwhile, is the wrong woman for 2010, but she’s in the right district with the right opponent. A liberal who is not well liked, Sutton doesn’t blend with the “Reagan Democrats” — conservative white ethnics — in her district.
Sutton should be a goner, especially given the hemorrhaging of her constituents’ jobs as LTV Steel and Ford Motors’ foundry shut down. But she’s saved by an ugly sexual assault case against her opponent, Tom Ganley, and an act of self-preservation a decade back by Republican Gov. Bob Taft. In 2001, Taft feared a challenge from then-Rep. Sherrod Brown, so he pushed the GOP legislature during redistricting to merge parts of Democratic Akron with Brown’s Lorain base. In other words, Taft made Brown safe in order to keep him in the House and thus out of the governor race.
Thanks to this quirk of history, the odds were already in Sutton’s favor despite her weaknesses as a candidate and hostile political winds. When the lawsuit hit her opponent last week, it may have guaranteed her a win.
The two Democratic congressman in Ohio who are likely to lose — Mary Jo Kilroy near Columbus and Steve Driehaus in Cincinnati — might have lost even without a GOP surge. Driehaus rode Obama’s coattails into Congress, carrying this 28 percent black district with the aid of high black turnout in 2008. With no Obama boom this year, former Rep. Steve Chabot (R) is the odds-on favorite.
Kilroy, also a freshman, pulled ahead in 2008 during the financial panic in October. She won with only 46 percent. Two right-leaning third-party candidates received 27,000 votes between them, and Kilroy beat Republican Steve Stivers by only 2,300 votes. In any normal year — no Obama, no financial panic – Kilroy would be in trouble. This year’s ornery electorate is the nail in her coffin.
John Boccieri is another Democratic incumbent on the chopping block, facing a serious challenge from former Wadsworth Mayor Jim Renacci. Renacci can console himself that his name recognition is lower than that of Stivers and Chabot, this being Renacci’s first House race. As more voters learn Renacci exists, he should climb in the polls, too.
As things stand now, then, Republicans in this “tidal wave” year might gain only two House seats in Ohio — not even making up their 2008 losses here, much less their 2006 losses. And those two pickups would have happened even without the national GOP “surge.”
What could trigger a tidal wave? Maybe it will happen when voters tune in across the state. Renacci, like car salesman Ganley, has plenty of his own money to hit the airwaves in the final weeks. Republican challengers to Space and Rep. Charlie Wilson could also mount late rallies if they manage to catch the wave of anti-Democrat, anti-incumbent fever posited daily by Beltway pundits.
But Ohio Republican operatives say the turnarounds depend on circumstances in Ohio, not the national mood. Specifically, the GOP will make large gains in Ohio only if Republican John Kasich can pull away from Democratic incumbent Ted Strickland in the gubernatorial race.
It’s a cliche, but it’s true: All politics is local. For Democrats in Ohio, that’s a rare source of comfort this year.
Timothy P.Carney, The Examiner’s senior political columnist, can be contacted at [email protected]. His column appears Monday and Thursday, and his stories and blog posts appear on ExaminerPolitics.com.
[Correction: This column originally had the incorrect first name for Republican House nominee Tom Ganley.]
