LAS VEGAS — The remaining five Republican presidential contenders have one last chance to score an early win before a nomination contest that has been dominated by retail politics goes national and is fought online and on television.
Front-runner Donald Trump is favored to win Tuesday evening’s Nevada caucuses, in part thanks to momentum the New York celebrity businessman developed after consecutive wins in New Hampshire and South Carolina. The battle for second place is fierce, with Sen. Ted Cruz of Texas and Sen. Marco Rubio of Florida hoping for a strong finish behind Trump to propel them toward the March 1, Super Tuesday primaries with momentum of their own.
“At this point here in Nevada it’s entirely about turnout,” Cruz told reporters Monday during a press conference in Las Vegas.
In addition to Trump, Cruz and Rubio, retired pediatric neurosurgeon Ben Carson and Ohio Gov. John Kasich are expected to pick up some portion of the vote, although only Cruz and Rubio have fielded sophisticated ground games for the caucuses. Trump hasn’t had much of a presence on the ground, but it’s not expected to hamper his prospects.
Voter turnout could run anywhere from 50,000 to 100,000. The caucuses are not scheduled to end until around 11:30 p.m. Eastern Time, and tallying the votes could take awhile. Polling in Nevada is always dicey and trying to gauge the caucus results is even more difficult. Notably, almost every Republican presidential candidate from the original field of 17 will be on the ballot because they were printed long before the field winnowed to five.
Unlike Iowa, Nevada doesn’t have much experience with caucuses.
“We tracked a surge of Republican registration before the deadline of Feb. 13 and there are some early indications that turnout could be unexpectedly high,” said Jack St. Martin, president of Engage Nevada, a nonpartisan voter registration organization and former official with the Republican National Committee.
The Rubio campaign is virtually predicting a “strong” second place finish. Campaign manager Terry Sullivan told a conference call held Monday to update for donors that “we’ll beat Ted Cruz and get close to Trump, but the difference could be Kasich’s vote,” according to a participant on the call. Publicly, the Rubio campaign is projecting confidence but not making any predictions. Some political operatives say Rubio might indeed have an edge.
Nevada is the one state where Rubio has organized longer and more deeply than any other candidate.
Plus, the senator has received the endorsement of influential Mormon Republicans like Sen. Dean Heller, who previously backed former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush but jumped on board Sunday, and Rep. Cresent Hardy, who also endorsed Sunday. Rubio’s state campaign chairman, Lt. Gov. Mark Hutchison, is another top Mormon Republican in Nevada, which features a significant bloc of voters who affiliate with the Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints.
“I think that gives Rubio an edge,” a Nevada GOP insider said.
Notably, Rubio is scheduled to hold one campaign rally in southern Nevada on Tuesday, and then fly to the Midwest for events in Minneapolis and Grand Rapids, Mich. He won’t be in the state when the results come in. Cruz will, and is spending a full day of campaigning in Nevada on Caucus Day in a play to up his numbers. That includes three northern Nevada rallies, and a visit with his wife to a caucus site. Trump also is holding a victory rally in Nevada on Tuesday.
Some Rubio supporters, while conceding that Cruz got a later start organizing here, say the Texas senator has gotten up to speed fast and shouldn’t be dismissed. The more secular and suburban electorate here isn’t necessarily a good fit for Cruz. But Cruz is expected to perform well with the state’s strong contingent of libertarian-leaning Republicans and voters who hail from the sparsely populated rural counties.
“I’ve actually watched Ted Cruz for a very long time. I’ve never really been too political until we had a man called [President] Barack Obama running for office, and I’ve watched Ted Cruz and I just think he’s a true conservative which we need back in this country,” said Theresa Wright, 56, of Henderson, who plans to caucus for Cruz on Tuesday. “I think he’s honest.”
