When the Republican presidential contenders show up in Florida Tuesday for an economic forum, voters better pay attention. They might not return any time soon.
Former two-term Gov. Jeb Bush, and incumbent first-term Sen. Marco Rubio are dominating the emerging battle for Florida. In the process, they appear to be crowding other candidates out of the primary. That only raises the stakes of the March 15 contest for Bush and Rubio, already locked in a quiet grudge match for supremacy.
“I don’t think there’s any upside at this point for anyone trying to compete in Florida other than Jeb and Marco,” said Republican strategist Stuart Stevens, who oversaw the campaign of 2012 GOP nominee Mitt Romney.
The matter is sensitive at this early stage. Neither Rubio’s campaign nor Bush’s political operation would comment for this story. Close allies only agreed to discuss the Florida primary on condition of anonymity. Bush, 62, and Rubio, 44, longtime associates going back to when the former was governor and the latter speaker of the Florida House of Representatives, prefer to downplay the obvious: the two Miami neighbors are now rivals headed toward a showdown.
Veteran Republican operatives believe one of them could be effectively knocked out of the 2016 race before Florida Republicans vote, either through underperforming in the four early-state nominating contests or in the Super Tuesday Southern primary on track for March 1. In that case, the survivor could win the Sunshine State’s winner-take-all contest for 99 delegates without a fight. Conversely, he could find himself fending off confident challengers who decide Florida is worth risking their precious resources.
All sides agree that Bush has a financial advantage over Rubio. He is raising tens of millions of dollars through his political action committee and super PAC, both called Right to Rise. Bush supporters also claim broad ownership of Florida’s Republican establishment of political operatives, consultants, strategists, fundraisers and elected officials, as well as grassroots activists and infrastructure, built over more than two decades going back to his first run for governor in 1994.
“There are a network of very loyal supporters of Jeb Bush that are clamoring for there to be an official campaign they can sign up for,” said a Republican operative who would advise the governor’s presidential bid. “The only candidate who could come into Florida and challenge him would be Marco Rubio…And, Jeb still has the upper hand.”
Rubio allies are content to play the underdog, arguing that the senator has distinct political advantages. Rubio’s Cuban heritage should boost him in Miami-Dade County, a key primary battleground. He was on the statewide ballot more recently — 2010 for Rubio, 2002 for Bush — and is more in sync with today’s Tea Party-infused GOP. Presidential campaigns are often dictated by momentum, and Rubio partisans believe Bush has more to lose.
“I don’t see how Jeb’s not alive come Florida under any circumstance; in that case Florida becomes his Waterloo,” said a Rubio backer who is active on the ground in state. “I’d rather be where Marco is than where Jeb is.”
As both contenders focus on assembling a national organization and showering attention on Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina and Nevada, activities on the home front have been less pronounced and taken place mostly behind the scenes. Bush and Rubio have been recruiting allies and communicating with existing supporters, preparing them to activate once the Florida race heats up. But that doesn’t mean they’ve been dormant.
Bush and Rubio campaigned in Florida last month in events that could be interpreted as each trying to make inroads with the other’s base. On May 18, Bush and Rep. Lincoln Diaz Balart, R-Fla., headlined a low-dollar fundraiser in Miami for the governor’s PAC to connect with young Cuban Americans. The same day, Rubio was in northeast Florida, a Bush stronghold, to rally GOP activists to get out the vote in a key mayoral contest.
Bush and Rubio supporters are simultaneously downplaying what the Florida primary means for their preferred candidate, while arguing that a loss by their opponent would end his White House hopes.
Republican operatives unaffiliated with either say neither can afford to lose Florida. A no-holds-barred campaign in Florida could cost $20 million or more. If the loser doesn’t end the primary bankrupt, the symbolism of losing at home could be politically catastrophic. Bush and Rubio begin with high name identification; falling short would be seen as simply a failure to persuade.
Winning could propel the victor to the nomination. “Whoever comes out of South Carolina and New Hampshire, and then wins Florida, is going to be in a very strong position,” Rick Wilson, a Republican strategist based in south Florida, told the Washington Examiner.
On Tuesday, Florida Gov. Rick Scott is hosting the Republican presidential candidates in Orlando for a summit on economic growth.
Each of the seven contenders set to appear gets the stage for 30 minutes if they want it, but Scott has asked that they limit remarks to their plans for growing the national economy — no foreign policy or other matters. According to a logistics memorandum released for the media’s planning purposes, Scott will open and close the event, with Rubio designated as the first candidate speaker of the day and Bush scheduled as the last.
The event marks the first time Bush and Rubio have graced the same stage in Florida since the 2016 contest got underway. How the audience responds to both could prove telling and create early in state buzz.
Ordinarily, Scott’s forum should be just one in a long line of Florida campaign events for the Republican presidential contenders. The state is a must-win in the general election against presumptive Democratic presidential nominee Hillary Clinton and offers the first real test of the primaries. Florida is ethnically and regionally diverse, geographically vast and expensive, and gauges a candidate’s ability to organize and run a competent GOTV program.
For those reasons, plus the risk of looking weak, Florida Republicans say their party’s presidential candidates can’t afford to ignore the Sunshine State, even if Bush and Rubio are still standing and competing for the nomination come the March 15 primary. But that’s not necessarily how the candidates see it. With 99 delegates and a winner-take-all primary, rather than proportional allotment, 8 percent of the total needed to secure the 2016 nomination are on the table.
“If we chose to get in, I don’t think there’s a state out there we wouldn’t play in, other than maybe Florida,” Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker, a top tier contender, told conservative radio talk show host Laura Ingraham last week during an interview.
Other candidates might choose to be less forthright about the Florida dilemma than Walker. But that’s how many see it; and the way the calendar is shaping up, asserted a GOP operative advising a Republican White House hopeful, they have other options, Even some Florida Republicans concede that the move by several states to shift their primaries to early March could diminish their state’s influence. In 2012, the Florida GOP primary fell right after South Carolina.
Most prominently, several states in the Republican-dominated South are pursuing a plan to band together for a Super Tuesday primary in early March, before Florida, in what is being dubbed the “SEC” primary. Additionally, there are other states scheduled to vote either before or concurrent with Florida that combine for plenty of delegates, among them Ohio (66 delegates, votes before) and Illinois (69 delegates, votes the same day.)
If any of this is causing anxiety among state GOP officials, they’re not saying.
The Republican Party of Florida is expressing confidence that the candidates will realize the value of competing there, and show up to meet voters early and often in a play for delegates and to lay a foundation for the general election. In the meantime, the party is preparing a grassroots and digital outreach program to engage voters and beat what is sure to be a robust Clinton machine.
“What we’re doing on our end is just getting prepared,” state GOP spokesman Wadi Gaitan said. “We’re focused on making sure that the 29 electoral votes that Florida has goes to the Republican nominee.”
Disclosure: The author’s wife works as an adviser to Scott Walker.
