High-level Democrats don’t think Joe Biden has the organization, money or time to beat Hillary Clinton. So why has the vice president done nothing to discourage speculation he will run in 2016?
Is Biden’s best hope that Clinton’s worst-case scenario comes true?
“Where Clinton is standing now I don’t think Biden has enough time, but if she falters to the point where there’s more concern about her viability, then this could free up some of Clinton’s support and team to work for another candidate,” Nathan Gonzales, deputy editor of the Rothenberg Political Report, said. “But I think we’re a ways from that point.”
Clinton had a bad week with the questions surrounding her handling of sensitive emails as secretary of state. She also saw some swing state polls suggesting Biden could be stronger.
“The vice president is thinking about running in a really broad way and he probably sees more of an opportunity now than he saw six months ago. But at the same time he’s done this before and he has no organized staff no fundraising, so at this stage in the game he knows he’s quite behind to launch a presidential bid,” Brookings fellow John Hudak said.
He added, “The parts of the party that Biden appeals to are the same parts that Clinton appeals too. … Biden is going to [be] battling Clinton for dollars and support and staff and that’s troubling for him.”
Much of the Democratic establishment has already pledged their support to Clinton. According to one strategist who declined to be named, “Hillary’s bundlers are telling people to hold their checkbooks tight” in case Biden gets an “organization up and running.” Clinton could then count on an infusion of cash to help meet the new challenge.
So far, Bernie Sanders has been the only Democrat to pose any sort of challenge to Hillary Clinton. Martin O’Malley, Jim Webb and Lincoln Chafee have all failed. Strategists noted that other Democrats, such as Sens. Elizabeth Warren of Massachusetts or Kirsten Gillibrand or New York may have held back to the force of the Clinton machine.
“Clinton’s role within the party keeps a lot of aspiring presidents on the sidelines,” Gonzales said. “If she’s not viewed as a contender then a lot of other people may come into the race.”
Right now the Clinton campaign is trying to appear calm in the face of the email scandal. Her campaign sent out letters to top donors assuring them there was no need to be alarmed and sent out a video calling the allegations “dead wrong,”
“The big selling point for Hillary Clinton was that she was the only one who could win the White House on the Democratic side,” GOP strategist Ford O’Connell said. “As this email scandal gets worse any democrats are getting nervous.”
The Clintons have “a unique ability to survive political messes” and there is no evidence indicating that this situation will be any different than the previous ones,” according to Gonzales.
But, if Clinton doesn’t survive this latest scandal, Biden’s waiting game could pay off.
“Democrats wish that Clinton wish she was doing better than she is but I’m not sure there is a wide enough opening right now for someone else to win the nomination,” Gonzales said. ” The Clintons have built up a lot of loyalty within the party and I think its going to take more bad news than is out there now for them to pick a different horse in this race.”
