If you are looking for a photo finish Congressional race next Tuesday night, look no further than California’s 39th District. It’s an open seat in a demographically diverse area that encompasses parts of Los Angeles, Orange, and San Bernardino counties and it’s currently rated as a “toss up” by everyone from RealClearPolitics, the Cook Political Report, Sabato’s Crystal Ball, FiveThirtyEight, Politico, Inside Elections, and USA Today.
The race has a little bit of everything:
* A 17-candidate primary field where the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee had to step in and referee its own party;
* A Republican Asian-American female immigrant, Young Kim, who supports DACA and student loan forgiveness;
* A Democratic Hispanic candidate, Gil Cisneros, who, just after losing his job literally hit the jackpot by winning $266 million in the Mega Millions lottery;
* And a harassment allegation against Cisneros that was recently recanted by the accuser.
Outside groups have poured millions of dollars into the campaign and no one is willing to take a flier on who the winner will be.
The origins of this wild race began with Republican Rep. Ed Royce announcing he was retiring after 26 years, leaving the seat open. While Royce had won in 2016 by double digits, Hillary Clinton beat Donald Trump by 8.6 points, making his district a natural target for Democrats this year.
Young Kim, 56, is a protege of Royce’s and was seen as a natural choice to run for his seat. She had worked in his Congressional office for 21 years and before that in his state senate office. The two are so close that Kim’s four now-grown children know him as “Uncle Ed”—he’d played with them as children, attended their graduations, and been at the weddings of her two eldest.
Royce encouraged Kim to run, she told me. “Nobody knows the district like you do,” he told her. At first, she was shocked he was retiring, but, “He gave me that confidence. Within 24 hours of his announcement to retire, he called me and he told me, ‘I’m with you.’”
Kim, a Korean-American immigrant, first immigrated to Guam with her family while in junior high school, then to Hawaii for high school, then to California, where she attended the USC. It was there she met her husband, and they married one year after she graduated. After working for Royce for more than two decade, she also ran for the California state assembly in 2014, and won—but was defeated for reelection in 2016. She had been planning to run for the Orange County Board of Supervisors when Royce decided to step down.
Her opponent is Gil Cisneros, 47, a Navy veteran and winner of the $266 million Mega Millions lottery in 2010 (he made the smart choice and took the $165 million lump sum, instead of the long payout). Cisneros was a Republican who switched parties in 2008, though as the Washington Free Beacon points out, his views were pretty far left during the primary, where he advocated “Medicare for all” (which he has been slowly backing away from during the general election).
The two candidates have had a few fiery debates. Both performed well, making their cases. Cisneros supports sanctuary cities, minimum wage increases, gun control measures, and fairly standard liberal causes. Kim is against sanctuary cities, in favor of increased border security, and for lower taxes.
In the district, homelessness, sanctuary cities, immigration, and the gas tax increase seem to be the main issues for voters. State senator Josh Newman was recalled in June by 59 percent of voters in state District 29 over a gas and vehicle tax increase. His state district overlaps with the 39th U.S. House District. Cisneros is against Prop. 6, which repeals the gas taxes, while Kim is in favor of Prop. 6. (Californians already pay some of the highest gas taxes in the nation.)
Both candidates are in favor of DACA protections, with Kim telling me she supports some type of legal status for DACA recipients, with an eventual path to citizenship, provided certain requirements are met, such as paying taxes and not accruing criminal records. The 39th District is a district of immigrants like her, she says. She also proposes student loan forgiveness at the federal level if the lendee is on the verge of bankruptcy.
But then there’s the money. Cisneros has raised $11.1 million as of mid-October to Kim’s $2.5 million, according to the Center for Responsive Politics. The Congressional Leadership Fund super PAC has tried to level the playing field somewhat by dumping in $5.9 million in ads against Cisneros and just under $130,000 for Kim. The DCCC, meanwhile, has spent about $560,000 on behalf of Cisneros while the House Majority PAC spent $2.2 million attacking Kim.
The Congressional Leadership Fund ads against Cisneros centered on a detailed harassment allegation against him a fellow California Democrat, Melissa Fazli, who described Cisneros as “creepy.”
After several months of these ads—which Fazli said were “accurate”—Cisneros met with Fazli in early October. And strangely enough, following that meeting, Fazli said the incidents were just a “HUGE misunderstanding” and demanded that the Congressional Leadership Fund stop airing the “vile” ads. Go figure.
As for where the race really stands heading into Election Day—no one really knows. Various public polls have had Kim up by as much as 10 points and Cisneros up by 1 point. A few recent private polls conducted by GOP-affiliated organizations have Kim leading in the single digits beyond the margin of error.
Dave Gilliard, a GOP consultant for Kim’s campaign who has advised Ed Royce for most of Royce’s political career, cited the absentee ballot return numbers as looking good for Kim. In California, about 60 to 70 percent of registered voters (depending on county) sign up to be on a permanent mail-in ballot list. The 39th District is comprised of about 34 percent registered Democrats, 34 percent Republicans, and 32 percent Independents on this permanent absentee ballot list. So far, according to Gilliard, about 48 percent of Republican ballots have been returned compared with 30 percent of Democrats’ and 22 percent of Independents, which is a “very good sign” for Kim. This is “significantly better” than 2016 and more in line with 2014, according to Gilliard. “There’s no evidence of a blue wave or surge” in this district, he added.
John Thomas, CEO and President of Thomas Partner Strategies, a California-based Republican political consulting firm who is not representing Kim, notes: “She’s one to watch because the question is if someone who looks and feels like her might in fact be the antidote in the era of Trump for the Republicans for the kinds of candidates they should be running for these federal seats.”
In theory, Kim should have the advantage. “There’s no question that Republicans have the candidate quality advantage here. Young Kim is an experienced vote getter and more the type of traditional Ed Royce Republican that has done well here,” says Dave Wasserman, House editor of the Cook Political Report.
But Wasserman also offers some grim historical context for Kim: “In the past 25 years, when the president’s party has attempted to defend an open house seat two years after the president lost the district, that party is 0 for 23 trying to hold the seat.”
