DES MOINES — Many political observers have noted similarities between Hillary Clinton’s campaign against Sen. Bernie Sanders for the Democratic nomination and her race against then Sen. Barack Obama in 2008. But there’s a more apt comparison: The Clinton vs. Sanders race is like a hypothetical fantasy matchup of candidate Obama of 2008 running against President Obama of 2012.
Attending Sanders events in the days leading up to Monday night’s caucuses, it was hard not to see the obvious comparisons to the way Obama ran in 2008.
Obama ran as a change agent, who dismissed all the cynics and naysayers who questioned the scope of his ambitions. Sanders is arguing something similar.
“One of the themes that has been going around in this campaign is what we are talking about — transforming America’s political system …” he told an energetic crowd packing in Davenport. Then, mocking his critics, he said, “It’s just too hard. It can’t be done. We have to think much, much, smaller.” But then he interjected, “And I say, to hell with that.”
He said, “I get a little tired when you hear establishment folks saying you’re thinking too big.”
In 2008, Obama argued that his agenda was achievable because he would be leading a mass movement for change, mobilizing activists to put pressure on lawmakers and challenge the Washington status quo.
At an event in Dubuque, Sanders echoed this idea, saying, “No president alone can do what has to be done for middle class working families of this country by himself or herself … The only way to transform America, the only way to make this country the kind of country we know we can be, is when we have a political revolution and millions of people stand up together and say, ‘Enough is enough.”
He later said, “Real change never takes place from the top on down. It always takes place from the bottom on up.”
Even some of the language of the 2008 Obama campaign is filtering into the Sanders 2016 campaign.
His slogan, “A Future to Believe In” is similar to Obama’s “Change You Can Believe In.”
At the Dubuque event, Sanders said, “What my critics are saying, the argument is, Secretary Clinton has brought up, which is, [my proposals] can’t happen.”
Echoing the famous chant of Obama 2008, an audience member shouted, “Yes they can!” and Sanders replied, “Yes they can happen!”
Once Obama was sworn into office in 2009 after his historic victory, he quickly realized that instituting change was a lot more difficult than it seemed on the campaign trail. He did pass several massive pieces of legislation, most notably, his healthcare law. But even with overwhelming Democratic majorities, it took over a year and required sacrificing many elements that liberals wanted. And the passage of the law came at a major political cost — his party lost control of the House in 2010 in a backlash against the legislation. This made it effectively impossible for him to pass any major legislation for the remainder of his presidency.
By the fall of 2011, as he started to run for reelection, Obama recognized that there wouldn’t be the same level of enthusiasm as the first time he ran. He told Democratic donors, “It won’t be as sexy as in 2008.”
He said to Democrats at another event, “I may need you to have some arguments with our progressive friends. Because, let’s face it, the fact of the matter is, is that over the last two and a half years, even as we’ve gotten a huge amount done, there’s a lot of folks on our side who get dispirited because we didn’t get it all done in two and a half years. That’s not how America works. This is a big, messy, tough democracy. And we’re not going to get a hundred percent.”
In the end, Obama presented his base with a stark choice, arguing that were Republicans to retake the White House, they’d reverse the liberal gains made during his first term, whereas his reelection would mean preserving those gains and building to them. He was able to cobble together a demographic coalition of unmarried women, minorities and young voters to help propel him to a comfortable reelection.
This is largely the strategy being pursued by Clinton, who is all but explicitly running for Obama’s third term at this point. Her closing argument in Iowa has focused on the need to protect and build on the Obama record, which she portrays as being threatened on the one hand by Republicans and on the other hand by Sanders’ unrealistic proposals.
“I don’t think President Obama gets the credit he deserves for digging us out of the ditch,” she told an audience in Des Moines, saying he “saved the auto industry,” “signed the Affordable Care Act” and instituted the “toughest regulations on Wall St. since the 1930s.”
She said, “We’re on the right path, we just have to stick with it.”
Clinton has hammered Sanders hard for his single-payer healthcare proposal, arguing that the political fight it would trigger would endanger Obamacare, which she said she wants to build on rather than uproot.
Speaking to a gym in Des Moines on the eve of the caucus, she said, “It’s a lot harder to get from zero to 100 percent than from 90 to 100 percent. So, stay with the Affordable Care Act. Stick with making it better.”
She explained, “We need to build on the progress that we have made, we need to prevent it from being ripped away and undermined by the other party whose views and values are opposed to what I believe.”
At the same time, in a clear reference to Sanders, she said, “I don’t think we can wait for ideas that sound good on paper that can’t get through the gridlock.”
She also is proposing a raft of policy proposals targeted to appeal to the same coalition of voters that Obama was able to cobble together in his reelection. She talks about affordable college, climate change regulations, gay rights, abortion rights, paid leave, voting rights and immigration reform, along with other issues meant to address middle class economic anxiety.
The question is, which strategy will work?
Clinton’s argument that Sanders’ election would put at risk the gains of the Obama era doesn’t carry much water with those inclined to support him. The supporters I spoke to argue that Sanders wouldn’t tear up the Obama agenda, he would just be willing to go further.
And generally speaking, Sanders has been attracting the larger and more enthusiastic crowds. He has rallied to a substantial lead in New Hampshire and here in Iowa, where he once polled 50 points behind Clinton, he’s still within striking distance.
That said, despite the similarities, even in 2008, Obama ran as somebody with a pragmatic streak, always with a keen eye on the art of the politically possible. His proposals were not as radical as those of Sanders, and, as somebody who would go on to become the nation’s first black president, there was a sense of excitement surrounding him that will be difficult to duplicate.
