Top Republicans in Congress and the White House have in recent days entertained a plan to push House Speaker Paul Ryan out of his post over the summer, in an effort to clear the way for his presumed successor, Majority Leader Kevin McCarthy, to assume the speakership.
A source involved in the conversations and who has discussed the idea with President Donald Trump told THE WEEKLY STANDARD that Trump believes there is merit to the plan, but has not formed a final position. McCarthy has been weighing the effort alongside a small group of trusted advisers, considering the pros and cons of forcing Ryan’s hand, and debating the best time to launch the effort. As of last week he had not spoken to Ryan about the idea, the source said.
Proponents say that the benefits are twofold. It would trigger a vote to replace Ryan, giving McCarthy an opening to become speaker of the House — that is, if he can avoid crashing and burning on takeoff like he did in 2015. But it would also force Democrats to cast votes for — or against — Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi, a favorite target of Republican campaign strategists, to be speaker. That vote could then be used against vulnerable Democrats during the height of campaign season, the source said.
Under the plan, Ryan would step down from his post as speaker prematurely but would remain a member of Congress until his term ends in January 2019. The prospect of Ryan’s right-hand man amping up the pressure for him to leave sooner portends a significant shift in the power dynamics of the chamber. A spokesperson for Ryan declined to comment. McCarthy responded in a statement provided to TWS: “Completely untrue. Paul has my total support. Together we are completely focused on our agenda and traveling the country to take our unified message and action to the voters in November.”
Ryan has pushed back strongly on suggestions that he might depart early, instead pledging to serve as the chamber’s leader for the remainder of his term. Allies of Ryan argue his intent to remain speaker doesn’t come from a thirst for power, especially because it is a job he didn’t ask for in the first place. Instead, Ryan says that holding off on leadership elections will allow the GOP to focus on campaign season rather than engaging in a bloody intra-party feud.
“I’ve talked to a lot of members who think it is in our best interest for me to stay here and run through the tape,” Ryan said at a press conference last month.
The push for a shortened leadership race began quietly in the days after Ryan announced he would retire. Some members, like close McCarthy ally Tom Graves, asserted that a lame-duck speaker would have diminished power within the GOP conference and on the campaign trail. “We would have more success if there’s no ambiguity as to what the leadership structure might look like,” Graves told Politico.
But Friday appeared to have been a breaking point for the forces eager to see Ryan step down sooner, after GOP leaders were unable to navigate the demands of the hard-line conservative Freedom Caucus, resulting in the embarrassing failure of the Farm Bill. In the aftermath of the bill’s demise on the House floor, a “senior Republican source” lashed out at Ryan in a Politico story about the legislative failure. The “senior Republican source” argued that “this is the problem when you have a lame duck speaker who announces he’s leaving eight months in advance.”
“He can make calls to members to urge them to vote for something, but who will care?” the individual added.
A remarkably similar quote later appeared in The Hill, also attributed to a senior GOP source. “If you have somebody who’s going to be stepping down eight months in advance, a lot of people are not going to care what you have to say,” the source said.
McCarthy’s first run for speaker failed for a number of reasons. He drew Republican criticism during the race when he made comments implying the Benghazi investigation was politically-motivated. “Everybody thought Hillary Clinton was unbeatable, right? But we put together a Benghazi special committee, a select committee. What are her numbers today? Her numbers are dropping,” McCarthy said on Fox News. “Why? Because she’s untrustable. But no one would have known any of that had happened, had we not fought.”
Those remarks were condemned immediately by Republicans involved in the investigation. “That was not the reason we started. We started because there were four dead Americans and we didn’t have answers,” Jason Chaffetz, who challenged McCarthy for the speakership, said at the time. On top of his Benghazi gaffe, McCarthy struggled to win the support of conservative members, some of whom were reluctant to support him amid concerns that he would not represent enough of a change from the tactics of former speaker John Boehner.
Three years later, Ryan argues that McCarthy has accumulated more political experience than he had the first time around. “I think we all believe that Kevin is the right person,” Ryan said during an interview with NBC after he announced his retirement.
But conflict between McCarthy and Ryan has been growing.
The two hold vastly different opinions about how to approach the DACA debate in the House. While Ryan has repeatedly said he would like to find a solution to the issue — recently saying he wants to vote on an immigration measure before the election — McCarthy is far more skeptical about the political benefits of doing so. During a Republican conference meeting last week, he told members that “If you want to depress [GOP voter] intensity, this is the No. 1 way to do it,” Politico’s Rachael Bade reported.
That argument highlights the difference in their leadership styles, with Ryan more policy-focused and McCarthy more interested in politics. Right now, the speaker’s race is more of a shadow campaign to win favor from the conference — “This is the time of the year where I get all the area codes I’ve never seen before on my phone,” Kentucky Republican Thomas Massie quipped — but members are having heated conversations about who they want to lead the party.
Other contenders for the role include Freedom Caucus founding member Jim Jordan, and Majority Whip Steve Scalise. Scalise has said he would not run against McCarthy, but members say it is likely he would run if McCarthy proves unable to garner enough support for the position.
