As first votes approach, it’s not just the Republican contenders that face the ultimate test, but their competing campaign strategies.
Voters don’t vote for strategy. But the competitive, unpredictable 2016 contest has put a premium on organization, voter turnout and political positioning. So while the candidates are about to find out, beginning next month with the first four caucuses and primaries, if voters have warmed to them and bought into their governing visions, it’s also crunch time for their campaign teams and the distinctly different strategies they’re relying on to secure the nomination.
“There are many different paths to the nomination,” veteran Republican strategist Carl Forti told the Washington Examiner. “Each candidate has to make his decision based on support, polling, available resources — both money and manpower. It’s hard to say at this stage whose strategy is best. The only sure thing is you have to start to win somewhere.”
The voting begins Feb. 1 in Iowa, and there are still around a half dozen Republicans — possibly more — who can’t be counted out. Adding to the uncertainty is national front-runner Donald Trump. The celebrity businessman from New York, who is running a highly unorthodox campaign, trails in the Hawkeye State, and it probably won’t be clear until next month how strong (or weak) he really is.
Then there’s the compressed voting calendar. Thirty states and territories vote in March, beginning with a bloc of Southern states that banded together to hold the Super Tuesday “SEC” primary. Those states, and several others voting in March, will award GOP nominating delegates proportionally, as opposed to winner-take-all. That’s yet another wrinkle that the campaigns must account for, strategically as they plot their path to Cleveland.
But they won’t have to worry about March, or beyond, if they can’t succeed in February.
After Iowa, New Hampshire votes on Feb. 9; South Carolina on Feb. 20 and Nevada on Feb. 23. Naturally, it’s in these caucuses (Iowa, Nevada) and primaries (New Hampshire, South Carolina) where the candidates are currently most active, for the first time putting their contrasting campaign strategies into sharp relief. In February that they’ll find out if that plan is a winner, and by extension, if their theory of how the race would unfold is correct.
“In every race we’ve ever had, momentum was critical and you’d think in a more compressed calendar it will matter more,” Republican strategist Brad Todd said. “I think the smartest strategy is to put the lion’s share of your effort on one of the two early states; it’s inherently riskier to not do that.”
Other Republican strategists wonder if the unusual nature of this presidential fight will turn that tradition on its head.
“In this primary, all the old rules are being tested,” said GOP communications counselor Kevin Madden, who advised Republican nominee Mitt Romney four years ago. Madden cautioned against over-valuing strategy at this stage of the race. “Never forget — when you start arguing about money and organization — nobody ever put a bumper sticker on their truck that says: ‘My guy’s got the money and organization.'”
Some candidates are following Todd’s advice, if only because they have no other choice. Others are casting a wider net. Trump, who eschews traditional retail politicking in favor of packed arena events spaced days apart, doesn’t fit into either box.
Former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush, New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie and Ohio Gov. John Kasich, all resource-constrained and hailing from the governing wing of the GOP, are campaigning almost exclusively in New Hampshire and banking on the first primary state to propel them into contention. Voters there value retail politicking and over the years have proven fertile ground for establishment underdogs. Christie, in particular, appears to be gaining steam; Bush and Kasich are stalled.
“We feel really good about where we are. We have gone from ninth place to the top tier in New Hampshire in the past month after a great deal of time and effort” Christie senior adviser Mike DuHaime said. “The approach is working well to this point, which is why you saw the attacks from Marco Rubio this week, on the heels of attacks from others a week ago.”
Former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee and ex-Pennsylvania Sen. Rick Santorum, surprise Iowa caucus winners in 2008 and 2012, are spending all of their time in the Hawkeye State, hoping that lightning strikes twice. As before, they’re short on cash and trailing miserably in the polls.
Sen. Marco Rubio, running third in Iowa, second in New Hampshire and third in South Carolina, is taking a different approach. Rather than choose a hill to die (or live) on, Rubio has chosen to cede no ground and compete equally in all three, plus Nevada. Normally viewed as a sign of strength and long-term viability, this strategy has been met with criticism by many Republican operatives who have taken to asking, rhetorically: Where does Rubio win?
Happy to be underestimated, the Rubio campaign is confident that its method will pay dividends. “Marco can win anywhere and everywhere. Who wouldn’t view that as a strength?” his spokesman, Alex Conant, said. “While other campaigns are writing off states, we’re ramping up.”
Team Rubio’s focus on timing and meeting expectations is not unfounded. Exactly how well a candidate has to perform in each of the first four contests is partly — sometimes largely — determined by the expectations, as shaped by the candidate as well as the media, doing in. Surpass and advance, fall short and go home.
That’s shaping up to be the case for Texas Sen. Ted Cruz in Iowa. Leading in the polls and running the most organized grassroots campaign of anyone in the field, Cruz is becoming the prohibitive favorite; even a strong second place finish would be a body blow to his campaign. Cruz, prosecuting a hybrid strategy, is putting extra emphasis on Iowa, while laying the foundation to compete in the three other early states — and beyond.
In the process, they’re doing the best they can to tamp down expectations. “We are very pleased with where we are and the strategy that got us to this point,” Cruz spokesman Rick Tyler said. “We are taking nothing for granted and are working very hard to get caucus-goers to caucus for Cruz. We don’t believe that have to win Iowa because we are build to last but we are working hard to win.”
