The Republican front-runners are bracing for a night under fire.
The first nationally televised debate offers underdogs for the GOP presidential nomination their first direct opportunity to knock a leading candidate down a peg, if not out of the running altogether. It’s happened before, as one-time 2012 frontrunner and 2016 hopeful Rick Perry can attest, only reinforcing the high risk, though also high reward, nature of Fox News’ Thursday evening broadcast for Republicans on the leader board.
“You need to come across as a plausible president, someone who could lead from the Oval Office,” said Eric Fehrnstrom, a communications consultant who helped guide 2012 front-runner and eventual Republican nominee Mitt Romney through more than 20 primary debates.
Fox News on Tuesday was set to issue invitations to the network’s prime time Cleveland debate to the top 10 GOP primary candidates, according to an average of the most recent national surveys.
Rounding out the top five in the RealClearPolitics average were New York businessman/entertainer Donald Trump; Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker; former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush; Sen. Ted Cruz of Texas; and former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee. Sen. Marco Rubio of Florida was ranked seventh but spent several weeks in the top three and retains frontrunner status in the eyes of many veteran prognosticators. Their strategy for navigating the debate, almost to a candidate: keep things simple.
In interviews Monday with the Washington Examiner, senior advisers to the front-runners revealed similar plans to keep candidates focused on introducing their personal story, political message and positive policy agenda to a broadly unfamiliar electorate. They view mixing it up, especially with an underdog, as verboten, concerned that such a fracas might diminish their stature. So the goal is to avoid unnecessary skirmishes, although they are prepared to hit back forcefully if attacked first.
“Voters are familiar with Jeb, but for many this will be their first opportunity to hear about his successful conservative record,” Bush spokesman Tim Miller said. “He’s going to focus on introducing that and demonstrating an uplifting vision about how he can fix D.C. because he’s done it in Florida.”
Four years ago, strong debate performances, and sometimes just the attention garnered from the airtime, helped boost underdogs into contention and temporary frontrunner status. Such was the case for businessman and talk radio host Herman Cain, who briefly led the GOP field in the fall of 2011. Former Speaker Newt Gingrich used strong debate performances to fuel a brief resurgence of his flagging campaign and victory in the South Carolina primary.
Poor outings also contributed to the exit of two top-tier contenders.
Early in the 2012 primary, Tim Pawlenty charged Romney with essentially supporting Obamacare because of the health reform law he spearheaded as Massachusetts governor was similar. Yet when invited during a CNN debate to confront Romney with his “Obamneycare” charge, Pawlenty declined, and his campaign never really recovered. It was the same for Perry later in the campaign, when failed to remember the three federal agencies he vowed to shutter if elected president, answering meekly: “Oops.”
“Being a frontrunner early — that means the expectations are just that much higher. Because of the status bestowed up on you, you’re expected to preform. It really does put a lot more pressure on a campaign,” said a GOP operative who advised a 2012 candidate and is active in the 2016 campaign. “It is so difficult to prepare because there are so many different candidate and so many different dynamics.”
Of course, a strong showing by a front-runner could further solidify their position in the top tier and elevate them over others in the group. In 2012, Romney was able strengthen his grasp on the lead over his primary opponents with key debate victories. Here are some of the challenges and opportunities facing the top three contenders in recent polls, including the Fox News poll released Monday evening.
• Trump could use Thursday evening to further excite the Republican base that has boosted him into first place in recent polls, as well as prove that he has the temperament to be trusted with his finger on the nuclear button. Conversely, the debate could showcase Trump’s controversial bombast and cause voters to doubt his ability to beat presumptive Democratic presidential nominee Hillary Clinton and handle the challenges inherent in the presidency.
• Bush could use the airtime to dispel myths that he is a moderate. His record as Florida governor was quite conservative, with the GOP base forming opinions about his politics based at least in part on the presidencies of Bush’s father and brother, the last two Republicans to occupy the Oval Office. On the flip side, Bush’s commitment to positive politicking could reinforce criticism in some quarters that he’s not a fighter.
• Walker has an opportunity to introduce himself to a national audience that is still largely unfamiliar with him. If the governor delivers the articulate, energetic and detailed performance evident in his presidential kickoff or speech to a crowd of Iowa Republicans early in the year, his campaign could take off. But his ability to handle the pressure of the national klieg lights is unknown, especially if confronted on issues where he’s flip-flopped (immigration) or stumbled (same-sex marriage).
A Walker aide said the governor will show up in Cleveland prepared.
“We view this as an opportunity for the governor to introduce himself to millions of Americans. Voters react very positively to the governor’s record when they learn about it. And, as we’ve seen for the past several weeks, he isn’t expected to take the bait from anyone and is expected to focus on his own ideas, record and message.”
Disclosure: The author’s wife works as an adviser to Scott Walker.
