Minnesota Gov. Tim Pawlenty’s close-up could be coming soon — whether he wants it or not.
The Minnesota Supreme Court convenes next month to rule on the long-running Minnesota Senate race. Six months after the polls closed, Democrat Al Franken leads Republican Norm Coleman by a narrow margin after a statewide recount. Franken was declared the winner by a special court in Minnesota, but Coleman has appealed the case to the state Supreme Court.
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Under the most intriguing scenario, Pawlenty would be forced to decide between seating Franken or declining to do so while the appeals of fellow Republican Coleman — and an increasingly unpopular recount — continue.
Or the seemingly never-ending election game could take another spin — in Pawlenty’s favor.
If the court ties his hands, perhaps by ordering him to sign Franken’s election certificate, the relatively low-profile governor could benefit from the spectacle of a Republican officeholder being forced to seat someone who gives Democrats 60 votes in the Senate.
Republicans could view Pawlenty as Democrats did former Vice President Al Gore — a good party man whose hand was forced by judges. Deciding whether to sign the election certificate that would send Franken to Washington is a tough decision on its own.
Looming in the background is Pawlenty’s own political future, loath as he is to acknowledge it.
Currently in his second term as governor, Pawlenty could run for re-election in 2010.
A decision on the recount has clear implications for either path. National Republicans have goaded Coleman on and would surely expect Pawlenty to help his fight. Polls in Minnesota, meanwhile, show most of the famously patient state’s residents would like the recount fracas to end as soon as possible.
Pawlenty, though, insists his own political decisions can be insulated from the recount.
“It’s really not connected to those issues or that speculation at all,” he said in a brief interview with the Associated Press. “We’re going to follow the law. We’ll follow what the law requires and the court requires regardless of any other considerations.”
Republicans who have worked with Pawlenty say they believe him, even if it seems difficult to separate the decision from his future.
“Right now, I think Governor Pawlenty is more focused on the people of Minnesota than any broader national calculation,” said Phil Musser, a former executive director of the Republican Governors Association. Many others are dubious.
Kathryn L. Pearson, an assistant professor of political science at the University of Minnesota, said reading the implications of what Pawlenty’s decision says about his future ambitions is a favorite pastime in the state.
And Ross Baker, a political science professor at Rutgers University, said Pawlenty’s decision would color how GOP primary voters might feel about him.
“There are probably people in the Republican Party who would never forgive him, you can make that assumption,” Baker said. “On the other hand, if he signs Franken’s certificate, he gets a chapter in ‘Profiles in Courage,’ even if it may not help him.”
