Members of Congress are having an impact on this year’s Republican presidential primary election. Specifically, they seem to be dragging down the candidates they’ve endorsed.
Analysis suggests that the GOP candidates who have managed to squeeze the most endorsements out of the officials who roam the ivory halls of Washington are also incredibly unpopular with voters. That may not come as a complete surprise: RealClearPolitics polling averages taken from July 9 to Oct. 4 suggest that only 14.3 percent of voters approve of the job Congress is doing, and outsiders with no elected experience are dominating in the polls.
Nonetheless, it is still remarkable to see how that has translated into support — or a lack thereof — for presidential candidates who seek congressional endorsements.
Former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush is easily leading the race for congressional endorsements, with support from nine current or former U.S. senators and 28 members of the House. The most recent came from moderate Rep. David Valadao, R-Calif., just days ago.
Bush also has the support of two former presidents, his father and his brother. Yet Bush currently places 6th in the Washington Examiner‘s presidential power rankings and fifth in RealClearPolitics polling averages taken from Sept. 17 to Oct. 4. According to that data, an average of 8.4 percent of Republicans have supported Bush’s candidacy for the presidency.
Ohio Gov. John Kasich comes in second in congressional support, with five current or former senators and 12 current or former members of the House supporting him. Despite the support from lawmakers, Kasich is at a mere 3.2 percent in RCP polling, and places eighth in the Examiner‘s power rankings.
Sen. Rand Paul, R-Ky., meanwhile, has the next most impressive haul in terms of congressional endorsements, with twelve current or former House members and one impressive endorsement in the Senate, fellow Kentucky Sen. Mitch McConnell, the chamber’s majority leader.
Yet Paul is in the worst shape so far, placing tenth in the Examiner‘s power rankings and tenth in the RealClearPolitics polling average, with 2.3 percent of the Republican vote. The cut-off to participate on the main stage in the next Republican presidential debate, being hosted by CNBC on Oct. 28, is 2.5 percent.
Other Republican candidates have struggled to gain much support from the halls of Congress. Sen. Ted Cruz, R-Texas, has the support of 11 current or former members; former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee has eight; Sen. Marco Rubio, R-Fl., has seven; and former Hewlett-Packard executive Carly Fiorina has five. Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker, who dropped out of the race after his poll numbers cratered, also had five.
The candidates who have the least congressional support are also dominant in the polls: billionaire Donald Trump and former neurosurgeon Ben Carson, who have each scored a total of zero congressional endorsements. Trump leads the Examiner‘s power rankings, and the RealClearPolitics polling average, with 23.2 percent of the vote. Ben Carson ranks a close second in both, receiving support from an average of 17.2 percent of voters.
Combined, Carson and Trump possess the support of just over 40 percent of Republican primary voters, but not one elected official in Washington.
Bush, Kasich and Paul have the support of 67 current or former members of Congress, but combined have the support of only 13.9 percent of Republican voters, with well over half of that belonging to Bush.
Taken another way, if those members of Congress were understood to represent the 13.9 percent of the Republican electorate that their candidates command, it would mean that each one is worth around .207 percent of the Republican primary vote. Interpreted out, it would take about 83 members of Congress to equal Ben Carson’s share of the vote, or 112 to equal Donald Trump.
In this year’s outsider friendly climate, congressional endorsements may not be very helpful, these numbers seem to indicate.
