India’s successful ballistic missile test Thursday sets the stage for an arms race with China and Pakistan, creating what one intelligence expert called a new “balance of terror” in the region.
The Agni-V missile, which has a 3,100-mile range and can be adapted to go farther, has the capability of reaching deep into China and Europe. As is, the missile has the capability of delivering a 1.5-ton nuclear warhead.
Bruce Riedel, a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution, said India’s new global status after its successful missile test has realigned power in the already volatile region.
“For the first time, India will have a real capability to deliver nuclear warheads on Beijing and other Chinese cities,” Riedel said. “Before, it could only target Tibet. Now, it can target the Chinese heartland. So a real balance of terror will exist.”
In 1962, India fought and lost a brief war with China. Anger has simmered between the nations since then.
Chinese media immediately criticized the test, warning India in its People’s Daily newspaper not to overestimate its strength against China. The Chinese media were also critical Western countries for not speaking out against India’s military buildup.
Indian officials, in New Delhi, told reporters ahead of the launch that its missile development is meant as a deterrent and not for offensive military action. The “Agni” in the missile’s name refers to the Hindu god of fire, and the missile is touted by some in the Indian press as the “China killer.”
Pakistan, which has been in a near constant state of conflict with India since the nations separated in the 1940s, may be sensing a more direct threat. For Pakistan, “the missile delivery system gives India a clear military advantage and shifts the balance of mutually assured destruction in India’s favor,” said a U.S. official familiar with the region. Pakistani officials have remained quiet about the missile launch.
Nadeem Hotiana, spokesman for the Pakistani Embassy in Washington, told The Washington Examiner his country was “informed about the Agni-V test fire by India in accordance with the agreement we have with India which was signed in May 2005, regarding pre-notification of flight testing of ballistic missiles.” He declined to answer any further questions on the test.
Riedel said Pakistan’s race for dominance will push India to continue its military buildup. He said it’s not necessarily the missile’s delivery capability but “rather that Pakistan is rapidly building a much larger arsenal of bombs than what India has produced.” He added, “The imbalance of terror is now heavily weighted toward Pakistan. India may choose to try to catch up with Pakistan, but if it does that, China will build more as well, so a triangular arms race develops.”
Sara A. Carter is The Washington Examiner’s national security correspondent. She can be reached at [email protected].
