Al-Qaida’s top strategic target is not the U.S. homeland, but the region in and around Iraq and Afghanistan, according to some government intelligence analysts.
Officials said al-Qaida leaders believe at this point their priority is to inflict historic defeats on the United States in those two countries, paving the way for establishing harsh Islamic rule from Jordan to Pakistan.
At the time of Sept. 11 attack, Osama bin Laden wanted that attack to be the first of a series of blows to the United States to force it out of the Persian Gulf region. Al-Qaida still has the same goal and could attack at any time.
But U.S. incursions in Afghanistan and Iraq forced bin Laden’s al-Qaida to shift its resources.
“The countries in the regions are in their sights,” said a Pentagon adviser who has held discussions with intelligence officials on al-Qaida strategy. “That is not to say some attacks are not in the pipeline or some spin-off group will try something.”
A governmentanalyst in an agency involved in protecting the homeland said, “I know people like to trumpet the fact that there have been no attacks here since 9/11, but since Afghanistan-Iraq, there wasn’t a need to. We brought ourselves to them, especially in Iraq.”
The sources asked to remain anonymous for fear of reprisal for talking to a reporter.
The sources said the assessment is based on a steady stream of U.S. and foreign agency intelligence reports.
The adviser said al-Qaida also realizes President Bush’s job approval rating remains in the dumps and that a growing percentage of Americans oppose the war in Iraq, where al-Qaida executes deadly suicide bombings.
“The bad guys know the situation is not good for Bush,” the source said. “Attacking us reunites the homeland.”
A U.S. counter-terrorism official said, “al-Qaida is focused on where they are mostly likely to be able to inflict harm and right now that is Iraq and Afghanistan. They’ve got a presence there and they think they have a better chance of successful attacks.”
Director of National Intelligence Mike McConnell told the Senate Armed Services Committee last month that al-Qaida leaders “continue to plot attacks against the homeland and other targets with the aim of inflicting mass casualties.”
The Rand Corp., a California-based think tank that conducts government-funded studies on national security, says in a new report it sees “little evidence” al-Qaida has a coherent strategy to hit the U.S. homeland. Attacks could come for a variety of reasons, including damaging the U.S. economy.
