Vice President Dick Cheney’s decision not to run for president has, for the first time in eight years, triggered a stampede of Republicans vying for the chance to become the party’s next standard bearer.
While former New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani and Arizona Sen. John McCain lead the early GOP preference polls, there are plenty of other Republicans who want to succeed President Bush.
Among the most prominent is former House Speaker Newt Gingrich, who tantalized political reporters in October by allowing: “There are circumstances where I will run.”
The thrice-married former Georgia congressman upped the ante in June, when he told an audience at the Brookings Institution that he would make a decision about running in the fall. For the record, fall begins today.
“If at that point there’s still a vacuum,” he said, “then we’ll probably do something.”
He was referring to a vacuum of ideas among the other GOP hopefuls. Gingrich believes that even if he ultimately proves unelectable, a presidential campaign might be the best vehicle for leveraging his policy positions.
“If you’re interested in defining the idea context and the political context for the next generation of Americans, which I am, the most effective way to do that is to be seen as potentially available,” he said. “We have a choice between those who are failing to deliver and those who are unthinkable.”
According to Gingrich, those “failing to deliver,” at least on the issue of Iraq, include Bush, while those who are “unthinkable” are the Democrats.
Handicappers are unsure whether Gingrich, a polarizing figure who presided over the House impeachment of former President Clinton, will actually throw his hat into the ring.
“The thing is, he doesn’t want to do it unless it’s feasible,” says Charlie Cook, publisher of Cook Political Report. “But he is really intrigued with the idea.”
Chris Matthews, host of MSNBC’s “Hardball,” said Tuesday there are two broad categories of Republicans vying for the presidential nomination in 2008. The first category encompasses “those running as mavericks, perhaps Senator McCain, perhaps Rudy Giuliani, perhaps Mitt Romney,” he said.
The second category, according to Matthews, consists of “the people who are vying to become true successors to President Bush, basically continuing his mandate and his general philosophy.” Matthews suggested that Senate Majority Leader Bill Frist and Virginia Sen. George Allen “would fit into the category of people running to maintain the tradition of President Bush.”
“I guess your supposition may be right,” Frist replied to Matthews. “I have great confidence in the president of the United States. I believe he’s a man of principle. He’s led boldly in very trying times. He’s addressed or tried to address the big issues facing society today. Not always successful, not necessarily his fault.”
He said: “And so I very much would like to continue that tradition, if that were the case. I don’t know what I’m going to do, but somebody who stands on those principles and leads moving America forward is somebody I am going to support.”
Yet last year, Frist broke with Bush by opposing the president’s restrictions on stem cell research. This angered many religious conservatives, who will be influential in the GOP primary process, because such research entails destroying human embryos.
On the other hand, Frist is becoming more palatable to conservatives on illegal immigration, an issue that has riled up Republicans in recent years. While Democrats want a comprehensive immigration reform package that strengthens borders while granting legal status to illegal aliens, Frist is willing to push through a bill that is limited to border security.
“I look at it as a border security first, not border security only,” he told CNN this week.
Few Republicans have harnessed GOP anger over illegal immigration more adroitly than Rep. Tom Tancredo of Colorado, who is flirting with the idea of running for president. To that end, Tancredo spent three days last week in South Carolina, one of the early presidential primary states.
“It’s got nothing to do with race, it’s got nothing to do with ethnicity and it’s got nothing to do with country of origin,” Tancredo said. “We are splitting apart at the seams, and it’s becoming harder and harder for us to understand and think about who we are and what does it mean to be an American anymore.”
While most pundits give Tancredo little chance of becoming president, some believe his emphasis on illegal immigration could have a significant impact on the primary process by pushing fellow Republicans to take a tougher stance.
That might be problematic for Sen. Sam Brownback of Kansas, who is one of the most conservative White House hopefuls in the Republican Party — except on the issue of illegal immigration. Brownback’s support for Bush’s guest-worker program might help explain why he placed last in a GOP preference poll by CNN this month, garnering the support of just 1 percent of respondents.
Other Republicans who have performed poorly in such polls include New York Gov. George Pataki and Nebraska Sen. Chuck Hagel.
Then there are those Republicans who insist they are not running and are generally believed to be telling the truth. These include Florida Gov. Jeb Bush and Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice.
Nonetheless, there remains widespread speculation that Rice might be selected as the Republican vice presidential candidate. If the ticket prevailed, she would be come the first woman and the first black to be a heartbeat away from the presidency.
After studying the polls, consulting the handicappers and interviewing the candidates themselves, The Examiner has winnowed a list of some 30 potential presidential contenders down to 10. The result is Meet the Next President, a two-week series of in-depth profiles of the 10 people most likely to become the next leader of the free world. It’s a behind-the-scenes look at Democrats and Republicans, liberals and conservatives, front-runners and dark horses in the 2008 presidential sweepstakes – even before the 2006 midterms have been decided. With presidential campaigns starting earlier each election cycle, why wait?
