Democrats want the answer to two questions: Will Joe Biden run for president in 2016? And when will he make a decision?
It’s now evident that Biden is actively looking at a presidential run, though he’s made no final decision. But his timeline remains unclear.
Early on, Biden’s team set an end of summer deadline for a presidential announcement. Now as August comes to a close, the vice president could go public with his intentions as late as October 1, possibly doing a “soft opening” before the campaign’s formal launch.
“It will be at least until the end of September before they can find out if they can take on the Clinton machine,” political strategist Ford O’Connell told the Washington Examiner. The dream scenario is that current front-runner Hillary Clinton fades due to concerns over her handling of classified information over email while secretary of state. Biden could then ride to Democrats’ rescue.
But the longer Biden waits, the less time he will have to raise money and build a ground game that can compete with Clinton in pivotal early primaries. In the meantime, the Draft Biden super PAC has been bulking up, bringing aboard former Beau Biden adviser Joe Alcorn and John Edwards campaign alum Kate Bedingfield.
“Beyond the hiring of staff, the setup of presidential campaigns in early states takes so much organizational development it’s hard to imagine a scenario where Biden matches two already highly organized presidential campaigns,” Brookings fellow John Hudak said, referring to Clinton and Bernie Sanders.
Other declared Democratic candidates, Martin O’Malley, Lincoln Chafee and Jim Webb, all currently poll at less than 2 percent.
While the vice president’s office has been mum about his 2016 plans, Biden has begun to look like he’s at least weighing becoming a candidate. He interrupted his schedule to meet with Sen. Elizabeth Warren, a darling of the liberal wing of the party, and will soon huddle with donors. Biden also met with supporters in South Carolina.
“The vice president has not made a decision about his political future. Anyone speculating that he has made a decision is wrong,” Biden press secretary Kendra Barkoff told the Examiner.
While all five Democratic candidates will speak at the Democratic National Committee summer meeting on Friday, Biden will opt out, even though he was invited to attend the event. The vice president has a busy schedule.
Clinton is taking on her run for office as a full-time job, while Sanders balances campaigning with his Senate duties. Between now and the end of September, Obama has tasked Biden with helping promote the Iran deal in Congress, leaving him very little time to campaign heavily before the end of September.
White House spokesman Josh Earnest suggested the president would be neutral in a Clinton-Biden contest. But Earnest was also quick to note that Obama has often said that choosing Biden as his running mate was the smartest political decision he’s ever made. “That should give you an indication of the president’s view of [Biden’s] aptitude” for the presidency, Earnest said.
