Ben Carson now outpaces fellow Republican hopeful Donald Trump by double digits in Iowa, according to a new poll released Monday.
The retired neurosurgeon’s newly-established lead in Iowa has grown rapidly since polls first showed him edging Trump by roughly eight percentage points last week in the earliest voting state. Now, a Monmouth University poll shows Carson earning 32 percent support among likely Iowa Republican caucus-goers, putting him 14 points ahead of Trump.
The survey of 400 likely voters, conducted from Oct. 22-25, has Trump in second place behind Carson with 18 percent, marking a five-point drop since August when he stood at 23 percent. Meanwhile, Sens. Ted Cruz,Texas, and Marco Rubio, Fla., are tied for third in the GOP field with 10 percent each. Former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush is in fourth place with 8 percent.
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Carson’s support has also increased in virtually every ideological group. The established doctor now leads Trump 31-22 percent among very conservative voters and is up 21 points among somewhat conservative voters in the Hawkeye State. Last month, the two candidates were separated by just one and two points, respectively, among those same groups. Carson has also edged Trump among moderate to liberal voters, earning 29 percent support to Trump’s 12 percent.
“Trump’s support has eroded in a number of key areas, with the beneficiary being another outside candidate,” Patrick Murray, director of the New Jersey-based Monmouth University Polling Institute, said in a statement Monday.
“One question is how secure Carson’s newfound support really is,” he noted, referring to the poll’s findings that just 19 percent of Republicans in Iowa are unlikely to switch their current support to a different candidate and 19 percent indicating they have a slight preference. Forty-three percent of respondents said they are very likely to continue supporting the candidate who currently has their backing while 18 percent were entirely undecided.
A separate poll released Monday found a similar gap between the two outsider candidates in Iowa. According to the Loras College survey of 500 likely Republican caucus-goers, Carson leads Trump by 12 percentage points with 30.6 percent support.
Trump earns 18.6 percent, followed by Rubio (10 percent), former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush (6.8 percent) and Cruz (6.2 percent). Cruz’s fifth-place position marks a new low for him in Iowa, where he has typically polled between 10-12 percent, though he remains within the survey’s 4.4 percent margin of error against both Rubio and Bush.
