President Obama is facing a major test of his ability to lead his own party, in the form of a trade vote that some say will officially mark the start of Obama’s lame-duck status if he can’t get his way.
That assessment is shared not only by supporters and opponents of the trade bill, but also seems to be shared by the White House, which is expending substantial political resources to get the bill passed.
The substantive issue at play is whether Congress should give Obama trade promotion authority, or TPA, which would let Obama and following presidents negotiate trade deals that can’t be amended by Congress. Obama has seized on TPA and possible trade deals down the road as a legacy item for his presidency, which is why last week’s close Senate vote on the matter has TPA supporters nervous.
At this point, with a possible House vote coming up as early as next week, there are no guarantees, and some say a failed vote would effectively signal the end of Obama’s ability to influence Congress.
“It would be a huge blow” to Obama’s presidency “if they couldn’t do [TPA] and couldn’t deliver a few dozen Democratic votes,” said a GOP aide whose boss supports the bill.
A Democratic aide conceded that point privately. Given that Obama has made trade a signature issue of the remainder of his presidency, losing on TPA would indicate that rank-and-file members don’t believe it’s politically worth it to back Obama on an issue that they don’t support.
“The era of the lame-duck will officially begin,” said one House aide whose boss opposes free trade deals. “His presidency will be over.”
As dire as that might sound, the White House seems to be acting as if it agrees. Anti-trade Democrats admit that the administration’s aggressive lobbying of Senate Democrats turned the tide for TPA, where the Senate was finally able to pass it 62-37.
“We’ve seen what happens when the White House kicks its whip operation in gear,” the Democratic aide said. “They’ve gone deep into their bench,” to get TPA across the finish line, the aide added. “They’re trying to work every angle they can.”
Nonetheless, Democratic “nays” are optimistic they will prevail.
Only 14 House Democrats are on record supporting TPA. The House’s GOP leadership supports it but many Tea Party members, such as leaders of the House Freedom Caucus, are wary of giving Obama so much leeway even if they support free trade agreements in general.
That means the administration needs to pick up at least another dozen Democrats to get TPA through the House, according to vote counters on both sides of the aisle. Some Democrats say it’s out of reach for Obama today, which is why the White House is pushing.
“In the House, the White House doesn’t have the numbers,” Rep. Mark Pocan, D-Wis., a leader of the Democratic anti-trade deal working group, told the Fiscal Times last week. “That they’re approaching [opponents] now, and hadn’t to this point, shows you where they’re at.”
Democratic fast-track supporters think Obama can find enough votes. They also don’t believe that Republican leaders could lose as many 60 of their own. Their whip operation can’t find 60 hard GOP “nays” and maintains that in addition to the 14 committed Democrats they have, another 10-15 Democrats are “moveable,” according to one aide.
The White House is aware of the uphill climb, but points to the successful Senate vote as a sign that Obama is still relevant, and that Democrats can still be convinced. Fourteen Senate Democrats voted for TPA in the Senate, and White House spokesman Josh Earnest noted Tuesday that this was almost one-third of all Senate Democrats.
“That’s an indication that when Democrats focus on the legislative proposal and evaluate the arguments, that there is a reason for at least a substantial number of them to support it,” Earnest said.
But Earnest admitted the House will be tough, and lowered expectations on Tuesday on how many Democrats they might win over.
“We’ll settle for a slim, bipartisan majority,” he said. “We’ve been preparing the ground in advance of House consideration of this legislation, and we’re certainly going to be making a case that’s consistent with the case that we made in the United States Senate that yielded the support of about a third of the Democrats in the Senate.”
House Speaker John Boehner, R-Ohio, could bring TPA to a floor vote as early as next week. As of Tuesday, Earnest was still talking as if the White House had some juice left.
“The Senate can focus on the USA Freedom Act to get that done by Sunday night; the House can focus on TPA, get that done sometime shortly after they return from their recess,” Earnest said. “We can divide and conquer, if you will.”
