Barack Obama beat Hillary Clinton and John Edwards to win the Democratic caucus in Iowa Thursday, while upstart Mike Huckabee won the GOP contest.
The victories were serious setbacks to Clinton and Republican Mitt Romney, who had dominated Iowa polls for at least six months. Clinton was doubly wounded, since she seemed headed for a third-place finish. With 98 percent of the vote counted, Obama had 37 percent, Edwards 30 percent and Clinton 29 percent.
Victory in hand, Obama appeared before ecstatic supporters with his wife Michelle and two daughters.
“We are choosing hope over fear, we are choosing unity over division, and sending a powerful message that change is coming to America,” he said.
The presidential race now moves to New Hampshire, which holds the nation’s first primary on Tuesday.
Huckabee’s victory over Romney was even more decisive, 34 to 25 percent, with Republicans Fred Thompson and John McCain trailing with 14 and 13 percent, respectively. Romney had spent $10 million in Iowa, or at least 10 times more than Huckabee, who was considered a darkhorse until just a few weeks ago.
“Congratulations for the first round to Mike and we’ll go on to New Hampshire,” Romney told Fox News. “Mike has a natural base here. He was able to call on that base and he did a nice job getting them out.”
Romney was referring to Huckabee’s ability to convince evangelical Christians to caucus for him on a frigid Iowa night. Although there are fewer evangelical Christians in New Hampshire, Romney faces a different challenge there — a surging John McCain.
Just as Huckabee was helped by a heavy turnout in the Republican race, Obama was helped by an even heavier turnout in the Democratic race. With some precincts reporting three times as many voters as in 2004, Democrats were clearly inspired by Obama’s message of hopeful change.
Clinton seemed to sense the momentum slipping away in the hours before the caucuses were held. Once considered the inevitable Democratic front-runner, Clinton and her aides began trying to lower expectations by insisting that a second- or third-place finish in Iowa was acceptable.
Although she trailed Edwards by the narrowest of margins, that margin made a world of difference in the political world. If Edwards had finished even slightly behind Clinton, it would have been difficult for him to sustain his candidacy. But now he can cast himself as a political David who defeated Goliath.
Clearly buoyed by the results, Edwards told a roomful of jubilant supporters: “The one thing that’s clear from the results in Iowa tonight is the status quo lost and change won.”
Clinton congratulated Obama and Edwards even as she sought to minimize their success by saying she had “always planned to run a national campaign.” Flanked by former President Bill Clinton, she described herself as the candidate most “able to go the distance.”
Many pundits expect Obama’s victory to slingshot him to a win in New Hampshire and perhaps in South Carolina later this month. That would force Clinton into a late-state strategy of winning Florida and then dominating the cluster of primaries on Super Tuesday on Feb. 5.
On the Republican side, a weakened Romney could now fall to McCain in New Hampshire. That would put a major crimp in Romney’s strategy to win in early states, although a second-place showing in New Hampshire would make him something of a common denominatorin the first two contests.
