Have Republicans given up on getting rid of Obamacare?
It’s a poignant question when Donald Trump, the GOP presidential front-runner, supports the concept of nationalized, government-administered health care. Meanwhile, candidates with detailed plans to repeal and replace the Affordable Care Act have gained little traction for their effort. One, Louisiana Gov. Bobby Jindal, remains a long shot in the race; another, Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker, dropped out for lack of support soon after unveiling his proposal.
“I would put Obamacare at the top of a list of issues that are simmering below the surface,” Jindal campaign pollster Wes Anderson said Tuesday. “It’s going to be an issue.”
That appears to be the consensus of Republicans working in the trenches — that GOP primary voters will eventually get around to prioritizing where the 2016 contenders stand on President Obama’s landmark overhaul of the U.S. healthcare system. Obamacare is still unpopular, with 48.4 percent opposing the law and 40.2 percent supporting it, per the RealClearPolitics average. Republican strategists advising presidential hopefuls say vows to repeal Obamacare continue to draw big applause on the stump.
Yet the picture isn’t as clear at this stage of the primary campaign as was expected at the outset.
Trump, the New York billionaire businessman and reality television star, has stuck with by his longstanding support for government-run healthcare, praising the Canadian model and certain European systems. Now, it’s true that Trump is campaigning as an opponent of Obamacare and promises to repeal it. It’s also the case that his undefined agenda — a “terrific” plan that takes care of everybody — could, if he ends up releasing one, satisfy conservatives wary of mandates and government control.
But simply expressing support for socialized medicine would normally be ideological heresy in a Republican contest. Mitt Romney, never a supporter of national healthcare, was constantly on the defensive in the 2012 Republican primary because he championed government healthcare at the state level as Massachusetts governor. Not so for Trump, who sits atop nearly every state and national poll. He leads the RealClearPolitics average at 23.7 percent, and ranks first in the Washington Examiner’s presidential power rankings.
Trump’s not the only candidate to escape automatic apostate status for showing wiggle room on Obamacare. Gov. John Kasich has proven viable despite his enthusiasm for expanding Medicaid in Ohio under the auspices of the Affordable Care Act (most Republican governors declined to do so.) “If Medicaid was a deal-killer, we wouldn’t have had the success we’ve had in New Hampshire,” said Matt David, a strategist with the pro-Kasich super PAC, New Day for America.
“We certainly expect opponents to attack us on the issue and we’ll be ready to respond,” David added. “But it’s far from any sort of death knell especially in light of Trump’s support of government-run, nationalized healthcare.” New Day for America recently increased its advertising investment in New Hampshire, host of the first primary and second nominating contest overall.
Former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush introduced his plan to repeal and replace Obamacare on Tuesday. Sen. Marco Rubio of Florida has a proposal, as does Sen. Ted Cruz of Texas.
It’s natural for current events to take center stage over the course of a campaign. Lately, that has meant that President Obama’s nuclear arms deal with Iran; Planned Parenthood’s alleged selling of fetal body parts; and the looming deadline to raise the debt ceiling, have overshadowed a now perennial issue like Obamacare. Republican insiders expect that to change as the campaign heads toward Feb. 1, when caucus-goers in Iowa will cast the first votes.
Party strategists also caution not to misread Trump’s apparent ability to advance despite his (at least for now) liberal position on healthcare. The same goes for Kasich, who declined to set up an Obamacare healthcare exchange in Ohio although he accepted the Medicaid expansion.
Republicans associated with the GOP contenders, including those based in the early primary states, say promising to repeal and replace Obamacare is a guaranteed applause line. Among town hall audiences comprised of the most committed conservative voters, vowing to junk the program usually results in a standing ovation. As voters get serious and familiarize themselves with the candidates’ positions, GOP strategists expect the healthcare issue to matter — and weakness on Obamacare to have consequences.
“The GOP base deeply cares, because Obamacare is the embodiment of top-down, big-government, federal intrusion conservative-leaning candidates are supposed to fight against, not embrace,” said a Republican insider in South Carolina who is neutral in the primary. “Trump, Kasich and [New Jersey Gov. Chris] Christie will eventually have to answer for their sins against conservative ideology. To date, none have provided an answer sufficient for their positions.”
That’s what Anderson, Jindal’s pollster, predicts will happen over the next few months. But he tempered that expectation with caution.
“When we ask folks why they’re voting for Trump, it’s all about sending a message to the political establishment and all about anger,” he said. “When you point out the non-conservative positions that he holds on a number of things, they say they don’t care, at least I don’t care right now because politics as usual cannot continue.”
