Jittery lawmakers from both parties worried about the 2010 elections may control the fate of the economic stimulus legislation in Congress as they grapple with how their votes on the bill might affect their own re-election prospects.
Despite immense pressure from President Obama, 11 Democrats voted against the House version of the plan. The same group is also likely to vote no on the final bill approved Thursday to ensure their own political survival.
Stimulus opponents include Reps. Walter Minnick of Idaho, Bobby Bright of Alabama and Frank Kratovil Jr. of Maryland, who are all facing potentially tough re-election fights in Republican-heavy districts. Rep. Paul E. Kanjorski, D-Pa., who voted against the bill, is also considered vulnerable, according to the Cook Political Report.
For Minnick and Bright in particular, “this would be a political nightmare in their districts if they didn’t walk away from the bill,” said David Wasserman, editor of Cook’s report on House races.
The other Democrats who voted against the bill are from the ever-expanding list of swing seats that make up the Democratic caucus and are always in the crosshairs of the GOP for potential pickups.
Those lawmakers, including Reps. Allen Boyd, D-Fla., Heath Shuler, D-N.C., and Gene Taylor, D-Miss., “have adopted their approach to this issue based on deeply held beliefs and attitudes toward spending in their districts,” Wasserman said.
Shuler is not considered vulnerable in 2010, but he is weighing a bid to unseat Sen. Richard Burr, a Republican, and voting for the stimulus could jeopardize that effort in his swing state. In a speech in his district this week, Shuler reminded his constituents of his independent streak when he accused his own Democratic leadership of not doing enough to make the House-passed stimulus a bipartisan effort.
With a wide majority, House Democrats can easily afford to lose 11 Democratic votes. But in the Senate, Democrats need every single member of their party — plus two Republicans — to clear a 60-vote supermajority required to pass the stimulus.
Because of the tight margin, vulnerable Democrats and Republicans had a lot more power in negotiating the final product.
Sen. Arlen Specter, R-Pa., is one of the most targeted GOP incumbents in the chamber, and significant support for his 2010 re-election bid may hinge on how he votes on the final version of the stimulus. Specter was one of just three Republicans who voted for the Senate bill this week after playing a role in helping to craft it, and he takes a risk no matter how he votes. The Keystone State is one of the hardest hit by the crumbling economy, but Republicans there are opposed to the stimulus plan.
Specter’s support for the bill could generate another primary challenge like the one from Pat Toomey that almost knocked off the incumbent in 2004.
On the line
Members with the most at stake on the stimulus
Rep. Walter Minnick, D-Idaho
» He’s the first Democrat elected to Congress from Idaho since 1994, but his re-election is no sure thing in this red state.
Rep. Bobby Bright, D-Ala.
» Many political analysts believe Bright won his seat in this heavily Republican district in part because Barack Obama was on the ticket, and some analysts believe it could return to GOP hands in 2010.
Rep. Heath Shuler, D-N.C.
» Shuler is weighing a bid to unseat Sen. Richard Burr, a Republican, and would only be able to do so if he can continue to sell himself as a moderate.
Sen. Arlen Specter, R-Pa.
» Specter has three strikes against him in his bid for re-election in 2010 — his age, his health and his politics. Specter turns 80 today and is battling cancer even as he attempts to get re-elected in a state that leans increasingly Democratic.
