If one were picking allies on a rational basis, Europe would hardly be at the top of any list.
Europe is aging, militarily inconsequential and, with the legacy costs of 40 years of welfare-state excess coming due, has an unsustainable economic model.
Just months after finally settling on a constitution, the European Union is confronting the imminent failure of its currency because the strong economies, like Germany, are being bled white by the fiscal imprudence of second-tier members.
It was one thing for homogeneous, wealthy, communitarian Northern European nations to embrace the idea of trying to maintain societal stasis through socialism. You might fail, but it will happen so slowly that each generation hardly notices the decline.
But as economic demographer Joel Kotkin wrote in Forbes: “In contrast, countries like Portugal, Greece and to some extent Spain have tried to create a Scandinavian-style welfare state based on Banana Republic economies.”
Europe has benefited from embracing former members of the Eastern Bloc like the Czech Republic because despite high startup costs, the potential for growth is huge.
Spain and Greece may be good places for northern Europeans to go on holiday binge-drinking bouts, but they haven’t shown any growth potential since Hector was a pup.
Northern Europe will be forced to prop up these worn-out members of their confederation. That will produce dependency and, in turn, deeper irresponsibility. Preventing failures ensures that an economy will only go as far as its weakest member can limp.
As a series of economic pandemics is sweeping through a unified Europe, we also see strong evidence that NATO, arguably the most successful multination defense pact in world history, is shot.
The Dutch army is headed out of Afghanistan because the government in Amsterdam, elected on Obamaian promises of bringing the troops homes, has collapsed. Like the real Obama, Dutch Prime Minister Jan Peter Balkenende was not able to deliver on his promises of speedy retreat. Unlike the real Obama’s constituents, the Dutch were not relieved.
The Dutch army looks like a joke on paper. It is unionized and provides family officer quarters for gay-married couples, and the Netherlands spends a scant 1.6 percent of its gross domestic product on its military (the U.S. spends about 4 percent).
But then you realize that the 2,000 Dutchmen serving in Afghanistan represent the largest contingent of any continental power.
The Brits, who keep a real military, have more than 9,000 troops on duty in Afghanistan.
But the Dutch sent troops when the rest of the continentals opted out, its leaders preferring to face political defeat than face the shame of conceding that NATO was through.
Under the Obama surge-with-a-timeline, 100,000 American troops, with British help, are supposed to kill the bad guys, build the infrastructure and support the government. The Euros are supposed to keep the peace to allow a Western-style nation to flourish from the ruins of a fourth-century society.
That’s not going to happen. As in Iraq, the weight of nation building will mostly fall on American shoulders. And this time, the task will be much harder.
Which brings us back to the question: Who would want Europe for an ally?
Of course, another nation might have similar doubts about joining forces with the United States right now, if only because our leaders are so desperate to emulate what is demonstrably failing in Europe.
We may be the best, but you have to question the long-term viability of any nation that elects a president and Congress on a desperate mission to replicate the policies of a region that is losing control of its currency, cannot defend itself and does not seem to care that its First World status is slipping away.
You wouldn’t buy stock in a car company that was looking to emulate General Motors’ benefits plan and American International Group’s risk-management team.
But we’re long-term investors in Europe — if only for the fact that to get the blue-chip shares of Britain and a growth position with the Eastern European startups, you have to buy into the whole mutual fund.
But we should remember that America’s long-term viability depends on the growing nations of the world wanting to want to be on our team.
It’s hard to imagine anything that would look as unappealing to potential partners like India than our embracing a European model at the very moment that the continent begins to crack up.
Chris Stirewalt is the political editor of The Washington Examiner. He can be reached at [email protected].
