Only one-third of House and Senate Republicans voted for the two-year budget and debt ceiling deal that President Obama signed into law on Nov. 2, but the GOP is hoping the accord will nonetheless help it shed a politically damaging Democratic talking point.
For years, Democrats and Obama have labeled the GOP the “shutdown party,” thanks in part to annual disagreements over government funding levels that were unresolved until the last minute.
The two-year budget deal ends that uncertainty by setting spending levels for both fiscal 2016 and 2017. The deal also suspends the debt limit until March 2017, allowing the Treasury to borrow as much as it needs to above the $18.1 trillion debt limit.
Many Republicans hated the deal, but still, some in the GOP say it might force Democrats to stop saying Republicans are rooting for a shutdown.
“The Democrats will have their shutdown football taken away from them and their efforts to brand Republicans with the shutdown will end,” said Ron Bonjean, a Republican strategist and former top House and Senate GOP aide.
The sweeping accord will postpone a major source of budget disagreements until well after the critical 2016 presidential and congressional elections. The agreement represents a key political victory for Republicans who are eager to stop Democrats from accusing them of poor governing, which can hurt them in the polls.
The deal was orchestrated by former House Speaker John Boehner, R-Ohio, who pledged to “clean the barn” of difficult-to-pass legislation before Speaker Paul Ryan, R-Wis., took over last month.
Even Republicans who didn’t vote for the agreement acknowledged Boehner’s deal, written with Democrats, makes it harder for Democrats and Obama to try to inflict political damage on the GOP every time a spending deadline nears.
“He did something that may end up being very good for this country in the long run,” said Rep. Trent Franks, R-Ariz., who did not vote for the bill. “Making it more difficult for this president to demagogue this process, which he has.”
Budget deals became political poison for Republicans beginning in October 2013, when House GOP lawmakers passed federal funding legislation that carved out parts of Obamacare. The Democratic-led Senate refused to take up the legislation, leading to a 16-day government shutdown that voters largely blamed on the GOP.
Polls that followed the shutdown found that GOP approval ratings had plummeted to historic lows and that voters overwhelmingly felt the Republicans and not the Democrats had caused the closure.
One Washington Post/ABC News survey found 63 percent of respondents had an unfavorable view of the Republican Party following the shutdown. A Quinnipiac University poll in August warned if the federal government closed again because of budget fighting on Capitol Hill, voters would again blame Republicans over Democrats by a margin of 41 percent to 33 percent.
Democrats have seized on the polling data and in nearly every budget press conference warned of a GOP-engineered shutdown. The poll numbers may have given Democrats additional leverage in the budget negotiations.
Democrats have largely praised the deal, a sign, GOP opponents say, that the accord had little in it to please conservatives.
Most voted against it in both the House and Senate, and conservative groups called the deal a capitulation.
In addition to suspending the debt ceiling, the deal raises spending by $80 billion over two years and shuffles money from the Social Security trust fund into the nearly insolvent Social Security Disability Insurance Program.
“A bill negotiated in secret and insulated from amendment that busts spending caps and includes a $150 billion raid from the Social Security Trust Fund is not a ‘win’ for the Republican Party; it’s a loss for the American people,” said Sen. Mike Lee, R-Utah, who opposed the deal.
Outside conservative groups have begun pummeling Republicans over the deal, which could hurt lawmakers who depend on the GOP base to win re-election.
“The budget deal removes a lot of banana peels along the path for Republicans,” Ron Faucheux is president of Clarus Research Group, told the Washington Examiner. “In that sense, it’s a big help for them. On the other hand, the deal will be another arrow in the Tea Party’s quiver, and they will use it.”
