A majority of New Hampshire Democrats wouldn’t vote for Michael Bloomberg to become their party’s presidential nominee next year, according to a new poll.
One in five Democrats in New Hampshire surveyed by Quinnipiac University this month told researchers they were leaning toward supporting Joe Biden in their Feb. 11 primary, a strong showing for the former vice president in a state that since summer has been dominated by neighboring Sens. Elizabeth Warren of Massachusetts and Bernie Sanders of Vermont. The poll, released Monday, found Warren earning 16% of the vote, followed by South Bend, Indiana, Mayor Pete Buttigieg at 15%. Sanders was the only other 2020 Democrat to attract double-digit support, with 14%.
Hawaii Rep. Tulsi Gabbard and entrepreneur Andrew Yang notched up 6% and 4% support apiece, giving them another qualifying poll for the December debate in Los Angeles. So far Biden, Buttigieg, Sanders, and Warren have satisfied the criteria, alongside Sens. Kamala Harris of California and Amy Klobuchar of Minnesota.
While the poll represents good news for Biden, who has been flagging in public opinion research as the nominating contests near, it spells trouble for Bloomberg’s potential White House campaign. Fifty-four percent of respondents told Quinnipiac University they would not consider voting for the former New York City mayor and billionaire philanthropist, whose bid would seemingly impinge on Biden’s centrist lane. The results follow reports Bloomberg won’t run hard in Iowa and New Hampshire, choosing instead to focus on Nevada, South Carolina, and the Super Tuesday states.
The survey also could be the death knell of Obama administration Housing Secretary Julián Castro’s campaign, given his 1% showing will not help him qualify for next week’s debate in Atlanta. The former mayor of San Antonio wrote to supporters in September about the importance of appearing on the debate stage. Harris, while making the December round, additionally only registered 1% one week after she diverted almost all her resources to Iowa ahead of the caucuses on Feb. 3.
Quinnipiac University polled 1,134 New Hampshire likely Democratic primary voters between Nov. 6 and 10 via landlines and cellphones for a margin of error of plus or minus 3.8 percentage points. The Bloomberg findings have a slighter larger margin of error of plus or minus 5 percentage points. That question was added to the questionnaire on Nov. 8, with researchers sampling 636 respondents.
