President Joe Biden has cast new doubt on whether he will run for reelection in 2024, saying it remains his intention to seek a second term but that no firm decision has been made.
This follows an interview with the first lady in which she suggested they had been too busy to even broach the subject of 2024, though she hopes he runs. Vice President Kamala Harris has also used the “if” qualifier on the president’s reelection.
Age and the Democrats’ success in the midterm elections are likely the two biggest factors in his decision. “Those would really have to be the main things,” a Democratic strategist told the Washington Examiner on condition of anonymity in order to speak candidly. “He’s in good shape now on both fronts, but we’ll have to see what November brings.”
In November, Biden will turn 80. Shortly before his birthday, the Democrats’ narrow congressional majorities will be on the ballot, along with his own ability to pursue much of his legislative agenda for the remainder of his term.
Biden’s health and vitality could wind up being more of a subjective judgment by the president and his family. He has been running for president off and on since 1987, finally winning the White House on his third try after two terms as vice president and taking a pass on the 2016 election.
The midterm election results are more easily quantifiable, and several different scenarios would have clear-cut implications for his 2024 electability. Let’s examine a few.
Democrats hold both chambers of Congress. While Democrats remain favored in enough battleground state Senate races to gain a majority or at least hold the current 50-50 stalemate in which Harris’s tiebreaking vote gives them control of the upper chamber, keeping the House would defy both history and expectations.
This could mean Biden will have a greater ability to get bills passed than in the first half of his term. Republicans will have underperformed massively. Democrats would presumably still be able to get bills passed along party lines in the House, though the size of that majority would bear watching. It’s hard to imagine this scenario unfolding without a net Democratic gain in the Senate, which could permit them to eliminate or reform the filibuster to enable more legislation to pass there with fewer than 60 votes.
What impact this would have on the general election is unclear. It could mean more spending and, in turn, more inflation, higher interest rates, and a recession by 2024. Republicans and independents might be further enraged, and there won’t be the kind of course correction that followed the 1994 midterms.
But it would surely strengthen Biden’s hand in a Democratic primary and his case for a second term. This summer’s flurry of activity alone has improved Biden’s approval ratings with Democrats and in blue states. He would be unlikely to attract a serious primary challenger if he sought reelection under these circumstances. Even a more symbolic left-wing primary opponent would have more limited appeal.
If Biden wants to run again, this would be the best situation for him.
Democrats lose the House but hold or expand their Senate majority. Over the summer, this would have been considered a major coup. Biden’s job approval ratings had tumbled into the 30s, he was underwater in reliably blue states, and a red wave seemed likely to wash over the country.
Now it is the conventional wisdom that the Democrats will hold the Senate. Even Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY) has suggested as much, though he followed up by plowing a lot of money into the races Republicans most need to win.
The question then will turn on the sizes of the Republican majority in the House and the Democrats’ in the Senate. Expectations matter. Whether Senate Democrats can alter the filibuster matters. And if Biden can say he is the first Democratic president since JFK to add Senate seats in his first midterm election, it would be a powerful talking point.
Biden will also be able to argue that the trifecta that saved the Senate — disaffected liberals coming home, the Supreme Court overturning Roe v. Wade, and the specter of former President Donald Trump and his ultra-MAGA friends — could help him win a second term.
Still, this outcome would no longer be a shock. The filibuster won’t matter if Republicans hold the House. Tax and spending legislation would also wind up being under GOP control. Biden’s own poll numbers would wind up being a better barometer than the midterm elections unless Democrats did especially well in the Senate.
Republicans win both the House and the Senate. This scenario remains very much in play. Republicans only have to net one seat in the Senate, and it is still not impossible they could sweep all or most of the competitive races, even if that is currently not the way to bet. And now that outcome would be a shock to Democrats.
A Republican takeover of the Senate would now also suggest larger GOP House gains. Both Bill Clinton and Barack Obama did use emboldened conservative majorities to their advantage in seeking reelection, and Biden could do that too. But it is also easy to see this outcome demoralizing Democrats and reviving their summer skepticism about a second Biden term.
Although California Gov. Gavin Newsom publicly denies it, he is breathing down Biden’s neck in a way no other major Democrat dared to do to Clinton or Obama. And this is happening before any midterm losses.
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Biden’s own desires, as well as his physical stamina, would loom large in any decision. He could decide to pass the torch to a new generation of Democratic leadership from a position of strength under the best-case scenario or refuse to cede the Oval Office under the worst, at a minimum making a serious primary challenge look like a risky proposition.
“Look, my intention, as I said to begin with, is that I would run again. But it’s just an intention,” Biden told CBS News’s 60 Minutes on Sunday. “Is it a firm decision that I run again? That remains to be seen.”
