Washington has a new exit strategy for Syria. But it won’t necessarily involve US troops

MISSION CREPT: President Trump, who just six months ago said he was ready to pull U.S. troops out of Syria, is now backing a plan to keep a presence there until Iranian forces leave. But James Jeffrey, the State Department’s special representative to Syria, insists that does not necessarily mean keeping U.S. military “boots on the ground.” Arab allies and local proxy forces backed by U.S. air power could replace the roughly 2,000 American troops deployed there as the administration begins a new push for the “removal of all Iranian-commanded forces from the entirety of Syria,” Jeffrey said late last week.

White House national security adviser John Bolton, who has reportedly been pushing Egypt, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and other countries in the region to field an Arab force, laid out the plan last week to keep a U.S. presence in Syria until Iran leaves. “The president wants us in Syria until that and the other conditions are met. But I want to be clear here: Us. ‘Us’ is not necessarily American boots on the ground,” Jeffrey said. “There are many ways that we can be on the ground. We’re certainly on the ground diplomatically. … We have local forces that we have trained in various parts of Syria. Our allies have local forces.”

There are now three conditions the Trump administration has placed on leaving Syria: The complete defeat of the Islamic State, progress in a U.N.-brokered peace process, and Iranian withdrawal. “The goal of the United States in Syria, as the president laid out, is, first, the enduring defeat of [ISIS], what our troops are doing there; second, the removal of all Iranian-commanded forces from the entirety of Syria; third, an irreversible political process, which is what we have really, we think, been advancing here with the entire international community, with this U.N. process, under Staffan de Mistura, the U.N. envoy,” Jeffrey said in an interview with PBS Friday. Asked if that means Bashar Assad can remain in power, Jeffrey replied, “We’re not in the business of regime change. We’re in the business of setting conditions.”

IRAN ATTACKS: Early today, Iran launched six ballistic missiles toward southeastern Syria, saying it was targeting terrorists it believes responsible for an attack on a military parade in the Iranian city of Ahvaz on Sept. 22 that killed at least 24 people and wounded over 60.

One missile shown on Iranian state television bore the slogans “Death to America, Death to Israel, Death to Al Saud,” referring to Saudi Arabia’s ruling family, according to the Associated Press.

Iranian state TV said the missiles “killed and wounded” militants in Syria. “This is the roaring of missiles belonging to the Revolutionary Guard of the Islamic Revolution,” the state TV’s reporter said as the missiles launched behind him. “In a few minutes, the world of arrogance — especially America, the (Israeli) Zionist regime and the Al Saud — will hear the sound of Iran’s repeated blows,” the AP reported.

SYRIA SITREP: The Institute for the Study of War has a published an updated map showing the current situation of the ground in Syria. It shows Assad’s forces controlling the west, and coastal regions, with rebels holding the area around Idlib Province in the northwest. Kurdish forces, including the U.S.-backed fighters battling ISIS, hold most of the upper northeast over to the Iraqi border.

Good Monday morning and welcome to Jamie McIntyre’s Daily on Defense, compiled by Washington Examiner National Security Senior Writer Jamie McIntyre (@jamiejmcintyre), National Security Writer Travis J. Tritten (@travis_tritten) and Senior Editor David Brown (@dave_brown24). Email us here for tips, suggestions, calendar items and anything else. If a friend sent this to you and you’d like to sign up, click here. If signing up doesn’t work, shoot us an email and we’ll add you to our list. And be sure to follow us on Twitter @dailyondefense.

HAPPENING TODAY: Defense Secretary Jim Mattis leaves today for the NATO Defense Ministerial, which begins Wednesday. His first stop is Paris, where the Pentagon says he will “reaffirm the long-standing U.S.-French defense relationship and conduct bilateral meetings with senior officials.” In Brussels, Mattis will again stress to America’s allies the need for “equitable burden sharing,” which remains one of President Trump’s pet peeves.

At his Saturday rally in Wheeling, W.Va, Trump mocked his “generals” for failing to understand how other countries are taking advantage of the U.S. “I have generals — you know, it’s called the military industrial complex. They’re great people. They’re warriors, but they’re not into the world of finance,” Trump said. “So I say, ‘General, how much are they paying for this?’ ‘Yes, sir, we are paying for it.’ Why? ‘Sir, we’re paying because they are our allies.’ I said ‘yeah, but why else? ‘Sir, trade.’ I said, ‘yes, we lost $100 billion last year on trade, why are we doing it?’”

TRUMP SINGLES OUT SAUDI ARABIA: In his rally remarks, Trump made clear he thinks oil-rich Saudi Arabia is one of the biggest abusers of American largesse. Trump, who spoke with Saudi King Salman bin Abdul-Aziz Al Saud Saturday morning, said the U.S. needs to stop subsidizing the Saudi military.

“Why are we subsidizing the military? It’s one thing if a country is in deep trouble and in danger,” he said, “I said ‘Saudi Arabia, you are rich, you have got to pay for your military. You have got to pay for your military, sorry.'”

ON-TIME BUDGET: The Pentagon starts the new fiscal year today with an on-time budget, the first in a decade. Trump signed the $674 billion appropriations for the Pentagon, part of $716 billion in total defense spending, into law at the White House Friday. “My administration has secured funding to order 93 new F-35 Lightning Joint Strike Fighters, 142 Apache and Black Hawk helicopters, and 13 Navy battle-force ships—made right here in the USA,” Trump said in a statement. Concerns that he might hold up the legislation over Mexico border wall funding never materialized. The president instead touted $1.6 billion for the effort and slammed “radical Democrats [who] refuse to support border security and want drugs and crime to pour into our country.”

Rep. Mac Thornberry, the House Armed Services chairman, called the on-time budget a “monumental achievement” and said the Pentagon had come to believe that insufficient budgets and stopgap spending measures were “facts of life” for the foreseeable future. “These same officials had begun to view degraded readiness and lost agility as risk factors they would have to accept when facing increasingly sophisticated adversaries. Today, President Trump’s signature begins to turn that situation around,” Thornberry said in a statement on Friday.

LOVE, EXCITING AND NEW: In defending his policy of lavishing praise on North Korea dictator Kim Jong Un, Trump told the West Virginia rally Saturday that his friendship with Kim has blossomed into a full-blown bromance. “I was really tough and so was he, and we went back and forth,” Trump said. “And then we fell in love, OK? No, really, he wrote me beautiful letters, and they’re great letters. We fell in love.

“But you know what? Now they’ll say, ‘Donald Trump said they fell in love, how horrible. How horrible is that? So unpresidential,’” Trump said as he argued that by ignoring the conventions of his office, he is able to accomplish things other presidents could not.  

NOT QUITE FEELING THE LOVE: Meanwhile, North Korea says the U.S. needs to show more trust in the developing relationship before it will get rid of its nuclear weapons. Speaking at the United Nations Saturday, Ri Yong Ho, Pyongyang’s top diplomat, said the North has yet to see a “corresponding response” to its good-faith disarmament moves, and instead is still feeling the full effect of sanctions, which he said are “deepening our mistrust.”

“The perception that sanctions can bring us on our knees is a pipe dream of the people who are ignorant of us,” Ri said in remarks reported by the AP. “Without any trust in the U.S., there will be no confidence in our national security, and under such circumstances there is no way we will unilaterally disarm ourselves first,” Ri said.

F-35 FIRSTS: The Pentagon’s most expensive weapons program ever marked several firsts Friday, not all of them good. It was probably inevitable, but nonetheless a bad day when the Marine Corps variant of the F-35 crashed during training near Marine Corps Air Station Beaufort S.C., Friday morning. The pilot ejected safely, but the aircraft, which cost more than $100 million, was a total loss. It’s the first crash in 17 years of the program.

The crash came the same day the Pentagon announced its latest deal with Lockheed Martin to buy the next batch of F-35s for U.S. and partner nations. The $11.5 billion Low-Rate Initial Production Lot 11 contract, calls for the delivery of 141 F-35s at the lowest per aircraft price to date.

The contract fixes the price of the F-35A, the standard model used by the Air Force, at $89.2 million, a 5.4 percent reduction from the $94.3 million in the last production lot. The F-35B, the short-takeoff and vertical-landing variant used by the Marine Corps, will cost $115.5 million, down from $122.4 million, a 5.7 percent reduction.

And on Friday, the British Defence Ministry announced that F-35s landed on the deck of Britain’s new aircraft carrier, HMS Queen Elizabeth. The carrier can embark up to two dozen F-35s, and its launch marks the culmination of a decade-long effort to bring an aircraft carrier back to the UK’s arsenal.

“The largest warship in British history is joining forces with the most advanced fighter jets on the planet,” said British Defence Secretary Gavin Williamson. “This marks a rebirth of our power to strike decisively from the seas anywhere in the world.”

IRAN SAYS U.S. IS A ‘BULLY’: Iranian Foreign Minister Javad Zarif says the U.S. withdrawal from the nuclear deal reached with six world powers will backfire because the other signatories are keeping the deal alive. Speaking on the CBS Sunday morning program “Face the Nation,” Zarif said the reason Iran has not restarted its nuclear program is because “Europeans have been working with us in order to make sure that Iran enjoys the economic dividends of the nuclear agreement.”

Zarif brushed off U.S. threats to take action against allies who continue to do business with Iran. “The United States is asking countries to violate international law and is telling countries and companies that, if they observe the law, they will be punished,” he said. “This is probably unprecedented, even for a bully in a town to go to the sheriff’s office and tell them, if you try not to rob people, you’re going to be punished.”

ZINKE’S IDEA: Interior Secretary Ryan Zinke says the U.S. Navy can blockade Russia if needed to keep it from controlling energy supplies in the Middle East as it does in Europe.

“The United States has that ability, with our Navy, to make sure the sea lanes are open, and, if necessary, to blockade … to make sure that their energy does not go to market,” Zinke said on Friday at an industry event in Pittsburgh hosted by the Consumer Energy Alliance.

He was there to explain why hydraulic fracturing, or fracking, and the shale energy boom has given the U.S. an edge over its rivals Russia and Iran by making the U.S. less dependent on foreign sources of energy.

AIR FORCE WANNA-BE: That’s not really Air Force One you see parked near Waterfront Street at Maryland’s National Harbor starting today, although it sure looks like the real thing. It’s actually a traveling exhibit known as “The Air Force One Experience,” put on by a group called the Children’s Democracy project. The replica made its way to National Harbor by barge from Rhode Island.

According to promotional material on the group’s website, visitors will “Feel the thrill of presidential travel as you immerse yourself in the luxury, the excitement, and the history of Air Force One. In this never-seen-before recreation, you’ll take an exclusive insider’s look at the iconic plane that travels the world as America’s flagship.”

It’s not free, though. Tickets range from $15 to $35.

THE RUNDOWN

AP: Pentagon’s immigrant recruit program stymied

New York Times: ‘No Way’ North Korea Will Denuclearize Without U.S. Concessions

Bloomberg: Japan’s Abe Suffers Okinawa Election Defeat Over New U.S. Base

Air Force Times: The Air Force is revolutionizing the way airmen learn to be aviators

Defense One: China Has a ‘Space Force.’ What Are Its Lessons for the Pentagon?

Fox News: Trump’s new strategy ‘is working,’ Afghan leader says

The Hill: US destroyer sails near islands claimed by China

Calendar

MONDAY | OCT. 1

8 a.m. 1250 S Hayes St. 17th Annual Naval IT Day with Dana Deasy, Chief Information Officer for the Department of Defense. nova.afceachapters.org

3 p.m. White House. President Trump Presents Former Army Medic Ronald Shurer with the Medal of Honor.

TUESDAY | OCT. 2

8 a.m. 600 New Hampshire Ave. NW. Defense One Global Business Briefing 2018 with Mitch Snyder, President and CEO of Bell. defenseone.com

8:30 a.m. 1616 Rhode Island Ave. NW. Nuclear Energy, Naval Propulsion, and National Security with Keynote by Adm. John Richardson, Chief of Naval Operations. csis.org

9 a.m. 1789 Massachusetts Ave. NW. America engaged: Attitudes toward US global leadership. aei.org

10 a.m. Dirksen 419. Full Committee Hearing Russia’s Role in Syria and the Broader Middle East with Assistant Secretary of Defense Robert Karem. foreign.senate.gov

11:30 a.m. 901 17th St. NW. The Embassy/Defense Attaché Luncheon Series Featuring Sweden’s Maj. Gen. Bengt Svensson. ndia.org

WEDNESDAY | OCT. 3

7 a.m. 6715 Commerce St. Augmented Reality Workshop. ndia.org

2 p.m. 1777 F St. NW. Foreign Policy Conference: Tyrants, Terrorists, and Threats to the 21st Century World Order with Sue Gordon, Principal Deputy Director of National Intelligence. jewishpolicycenter.org

3 p.m. 1616 Rhode Island Ave. NW. Russia and the Evolving European Security Order. csis.org

4 p.m. 1152 15th St. NW. Presentation: A look at the European Intervention Initiative by Brig. Gen. Bertrand Toujouse, the head of the International Affairs Department at the French Ministry of Defense. cnas.org

THURSDAY | OCT. 4

7 a.m. 2650 Virginia Ave. NW. Defense One 5th Anniversary – The Future of Defense with Chuck Hagel, Former Defense Secretary. defenseone.com

8 a.m. 2201 G St. NW. Defense Writers Group Breakfast with Navy Under Secretary Thomas Modly.

9 a.m. 214 Massachusetts Ave. NE. Release of the 2019 Index of U.S. Military Strength. heritage.org

12 noon. 740 15th St. NW. Book Launch for LikeWar: The Weaponization of Social Media with Authors Peter Singer and Emerson Brooking. newamerica.org

2 p.m. 2301 Constitution Ave. Preserving the Past to Strengthen Afghanistan’s Future. usip.org

3:30 p.m. 1300 Pennsylvania Ave. NW. China’s Alliances with North Korea and the Soviet Union: A Conversation with China’s Leading Historians. wilsoncenter.org

5:50 p.m. 1779 Massachusetts Ave. NW. Navigating Cyber Conflict: A Conversation with David Sanger. carnegieendowment.org

FRIDAY | OCT. 5

9 a.m. 901 17th St. NW. The Next Battle of the Atlantic? A Conversation with Adm. James Foggo, Commander of US Naval Forces Europe. atlanticcouncil.org

10 a.m. 1616 Rhode Island Ave. NW. Maritime Security Dialogue: Naval Aviation and Readiness Recovery for Combat with Vice Adm. DeWolfe Miller, Commander of Naval Air Forces, and Lt. Gen. Steven Rudder, Deputy Commandant for Marine Corps Aviation. csis.org

MONDAY | OCT. 8

6:30 a.m. 801 Mt Vernon Pl. NW. 2018 AUSA Annual Meeting and Exposition with Army Secretary Mark Esper; Dan Coats, Director of National Intelligence; Gen. Mark Milley, Army Chief of Staff; and others. ausameetings.org

QUOTE OF THE DAY
“The largest warship in British history is joining forces with the most advanced fighter jets on the planet. This marks a rebirth of our power to strike decisively from the seas anywhere in the world.”
British Defence Secretary Gavin Williamson, on the occasion of British F-35s landing for the first time on the new aircraft carrier HMS Queen Elizabeth.

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