Democrats, cast into the political wilderness, frequently point to a comparable period 20 years ago as a reminder that their political fortunes can quickly improve. But the changed nature of Senate elections over the past two decades means winning back the majority in that chamber is harder than it used to be.

Senate Republicans in the 2024 election cycle won a solid 53-47 majority, recapturing control after four years in the minority. Across the Capitol, House Republicans held the majority — if barely, with what’s set to be a 220-215 advantage once a smattering of special elections is held to fill vacant seats that are strongly red. And, of course, President Donald Trump is back wielding power, in his second, nonconsecutive term.