To the trained eye, the massive military buildup in the waters off Venezuela suggests something much more menacing than a counter-narcotics operation.
And of all the pairs of eyes trained on that patch of the Caribbean Sea, none has a sharper vision of what might be in store than retired Adm. James Stavridis, the former top commander of U.S. forces in that region, and a former supreme NATO commander.
“I am astounded by the level of military force gathering in the Southern Command’s area of operations,” Stavridis wrote on the Bloomberg website, where he is now an opinion writer.
The U.S. military already had more than 10,000 troops, 14 warships, including a special operations mothership, Ocean Trader, bristling with drone and attack helicopters, as well as an array of land-and-sea-based fighter jets deployed in the immediate vicinity, when the Pentagon announced it would add the USS Gerald Ford and its half-dozen escort ships to the American armada.
“That is a lot more military force than is required to carry out strikes against drug smugglers,” Stavridis noted, saying in his military opinion, it can only mean one thing.
“The real target here is Venezuela, and U.S. President Donald Trump’s administration is clearly signaling that land strikes are imminent.”
Trump, who in September issued shoot-to-kill orders against suspected narco-terrorists suspected of running drugs bound for America, has brushed off criticism that the strikes on civilian speedboats in the open ocean amount to extrajudicial executions, arguing that as commander in chief, he has the authority to treat cartel members as enemy combatants responsible for hundreds of thousands of drug deaths in the U.S.
“Each one of those vessels that we hit kills, on average, 25,000 American people, every single year,” Trump has said many times, insisting the U.S. military is focused on fighting the illegal drug trade.
“We’re finally waging war on the cartels. We’re waging war like they’ve never seen before,” Trump told U.S. troops during his recent visit to Japan. “We’ve almost stopped completely the drugs coming in by sea, and now we’ll stop the drugs coming in by land.”
Stavridis had some educated guesses of how the campaign might unfold, with a ground invasion likely ruled out. Instead, precision strikes from stealth aircraft, cruise missiles, and drones target identifiable, narcotics-related targets, such as airports, seaports, and other trans-shipment points. Air defenses and anything that could threaten U.S. ships would also be a high priority.
But the real goal, Stavridis suggests, would be to destabilize the government of Nicolas Maduro — who brazenly stole last year’s presidential election despite losing 70% of the vote — forcing him to flee.
“The question is whether after the early set of U.S. anti-narcotics strikes, Maduro departs to a hacienda near Havana or a dacha outside Moscow,” Stavridis wrote. “If Maduro tried to stay in power, the special forces embarked on Ocean Trader could be called into action to kill or ‘snatch and grab’ him. The dictator would no doubt be constantly on the move and difficult to pin down, but I wouldn’t bet against U.S. special forces.”
The gathering war clouds are a stark course correction from earlier this year, when Trump was in active negotiations with Maduro over a deal that would give the U.S. access to Venezuela’s vast oil and mineral wealth, in return for a rapprochement and an end to sanctions Washington has imposed on Caracas for nearly two decades over corruption, human rights violations, and undemocratic policies.
It was Secretary of State Marco Rubio, insiders say, who convinced Trump that the way to obtain a share of those assets would be to remove Maduro.
“Nicolas Maduro’s a narcotrafficker,” Rubio said during a visit to Ecuador in September. “This is not just me saying it. It’s a grand jury in New York, the prosecution presented the evidence, and he was indicted.”
“Venezuela can’t cooperate with us because they’re part of terrorism. They’re not a government. That is clear. Nicolas Maduro is not a government or political regime. They are a terrorist organization and organized crime organization that has taken over a country so that they can become the leaders, so they can become billionaires.”
In rather blunt terms, Trump revealed that Maduro has made attempts to revive the negotiations. But Trump is no longer interested in a deal.
“It’s been reported that Maduro offered everything in his country, all their natural resources,” a reporter asked during an Oval Office session in mid-October.
“He’s offered everything, you’re right,” Trump replied. “You know why? Because he doesn’t want to f*** around with the United States.”
If the gunboat diplomacy is all a big psychological warfare tactic to unnerve Maduro, it seems to be working.
He recently sent a public message in English to Trump, sounding increasingly desperate. “Not war. Not war. Not war. Just peace. Just peace. Just peace forever, forever, forever. Peace forever. No crazy war,” he said.
Reporters from the New York Times and CBS who have been able to talk to people on the street are finding many Venezuelans who think Maduro’s days are numbered.
“No matter who you speak to here in Venezuela, whether it’s a street seller, businesspeople, officials in the Maduro government, it’s clear to everyone that the final goal is to topple Maduro,” Anatoly Kurmanaev, a New York Times reporter based in Caracas, said in a recent podcast.
Perhaps the individual with the most at stake is Maria Corina Machado, the popular opposition leader awarded the Nobel Peace Prize last month, and who knew exactly what to do with it.
“I dedicate this prize to the suffering people of Venezuela and to President Trump for his decisive support of our cause!” Machado posted on X, keenly aware that Trump is likely the only person who could end the illegitimate rule of Maduro.
“I absolutely think he deserves a Nobel Peace Prize because of the incredible events that are taking place currently in the world,” she gushed in a CNN interview.
“We’re finally getting a leadership that is addressing this tragic situation in Venezuela that has been evolving for 26 years,” Machado added, making clear she supported U.S. military intervention.
“The Venezuelan people … already mandated regime change. We won, and we need help to enforce that decision.”
Machado, who lives in hiding in Venezuela, is said to have a 100-hour plan for a peaceful transition to a democratically elected government if Maduro is deposed.
“It is the people, 90% of the population, that want to live in peace. But peace requires freedom. And freedom requires strength. So we will see an orderly transition. Be sure of that,” she said in a recent interview on Fox.
And Machado told CNN that she believes more than 80% of the armed forces are also ready for change. “They are also suffering hunger and humiliation. And they want to be part of a secure nation.”
NEW US BOAT STRIKES IN EASTERN PACIFIC RAISES DEATH TOLL TO MORE THAN 50
There is a precedent for the U.S. intervening militarily to remove a Western hemisphere leader who nullified democratic elections and was wanted in the U.S. on criminal charges of drug trafficking and money laundering.
In December 1989, President George H.W. Bush ordered U.S. troops into Panama to capture and bring to justice Gen. Manuel Noriega. The fighting lasted only a few days, and Noriega surrendered after two weeks of hiding. There were 23 U.S. deaths in the operation dubbed “Just Cause.”
