Trump argues that the Iranian navy and air force are basically gone. And with the Iranian economy in free fall, the country’s government is out of options.

“They’re negotiating on fumes. But we’ll see what happens,” Trump said. “Maybe we have to go back and finish it. Maybe we don’t.”

Ayatollah-led Iranian government isn’t backing down

Iran, however, is not acting as though it has been vanquished.

It still has a fleet of small boats — two of which were taken out by U.S. warplanes when they were spotted laying mines in the Strait of Hormuz. And also surface-to-air missiles, which Iran claimed downed a $30 million MQ-9 Reaper surveillance drone in response to what the U.S. Central Command called defensive strikes.

Retired Gen. Jack Keane, former Army vice chief, said on Sean Hannity’s Fox News show, it’s clear the Iranians are not negotiating in good faith. “Obviously, if they were out mining the Strait of Hormuz, it kind of gives you a sense of how serious [they] are.”

From the public statements made both by Iran and Trump, it’s clear the two sides remain far apart on almost everything, starting with the Strait of Hormuz.

“The strait will open immediately, immediately, but it’s got to be perfect,” Trump said. “I didn’t do this to get a crummy agreement.”

On May 27, Iranian state TV released what it claimed was a new draft proposal memorandum of understanding that, among other things, outlined Iran’s vision for the future of the strait. The plan would return commercial ship passage to prewar levels within a month, in return for the United States lifting the naval blockade on Iranian ports and withdrawing forces from around Iran.

The White House immediately labeled the unofficial document “not true and a complete fabrication.” While Trump flatly rejected any suggestion that Iran and Oman could jointly administer the strait.

“We’ll watch over it, but nobody’s going to control it,” Trump said. “It’s international waters, and Oman will behave just like everybody else, or we’ll have to blow them up.”

Iran is also asking for at least $12 billion of the $20 billion in frozen funds to be released up front, something Trump flatly rejected.

“We’re not talking about any easing of sanctions or giving money. No sanctions, no money, no nothing,” Trump told reporters at the White House. “We have control of money that they claim is theirs. We’ll keep control of that money. When they behave properly and when they do what’s right, we’ll let them have their money.”

Nuclear talks stalled

Most significantly, Iran wants to push off negotiations about its nuclear program, and the disposition of various stockpiles of enriched uranium — some at 60%, some at 20%, and some at 3.67%.

While Iran’s supreme leader, Mojtaba Khamenei, who may or may not be alive or in good health, has said the enriched uranium should not leave the country, Iran has indicated it might be willing to send it to a third country. Where, in theory, Iran could get it back if Trump or some future president reneged on the deal.

In a Truth Social post, Trump said the enriched uranium — which he calls “nuclear dust” — must be brought to the U.S., or destroyed in Iran or “at another acceptable location.”

But then he subsequently ruled out Russia, which took possession of an Iranian stockpile after the 2015 deal, or China.

“That would not make me comfortable,” he told reporters.

Both sides seem to feel time is on their side. And Trump insists he won’t be rushed into a bad deal.

“I can say that we can make a good deal right now, but maybe not a great deal,” Trump said.

“If it’s not a great deal, we’re not making it,” Trump added, insisting he’s not under any time pressure. 

“They thought they were going to outwait me,” he said. “You know, ‘We’ll outwait him. He’s got the midterms.’ I don’t care about the midterms.”

And Trump doesn’t seem to be in any hurry to restart major combat operations either. Even though he mentions it often. 

“They are starting to give us the things that they have to give us. And if they do, that’s great,” Trump said, invoking his administration’s war secretary, “And if they won’t, then the man on my left [Pete Hegseth] is going to finish them off.”

The idea of rewarding Iran with a two-month respite isn’t sitting well with some of Trump’s usual allies in Congress. 

“The rumored 60-day ceasefire — with the belief that Iran will ever engage in good faith — would be a disaster,” Sen Roger Wicker (R-MS) posted on X. “Everything accomplished by Operation Epic Fury would be for naught!”

“This combination of Iran being perceived as having the ability to terrorize the Strait in perpetuity and the ability the inflict massive damage to Gulf oil infrastructure is a major shift of the balance of power in the region and over time will be a nightmare for Israel,” Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-SC) posted on X. “It makes one wonder why the war started to begin with.”

Partisan splits over ending the war

Democrats are calling for the war to end. They are arguing that the U.S. has already lost.

“So, how can their military be gone when we’re conducting strikes against them in self-defense?” Rep. Seth Moulton (D-MA) said on CNN.  “Let’s be clear. It’s not Iran begging for a deal. It’s the Trump administration. … And at this point, we’re losing the war. We’ve got to cut our losses and go home.”

Many Republicans, on the other hand, are urging a change in tactics, including reviving the short-lived “Project Freedom,” whereby the U.S. military guided ships through the strait with naval and air protection.

The operation lasted only two days, shut down over objections from Saudi Arabia. Which denied the U.S access to its bases out of fear that Iranian retaliation would target the country’s desalination plants, its only source of water.

“Project Freedom is how we end this thing,” Rebeccah Heinrichs, a senior fellow at Hudson Institute, said on a recent NatSec Matters podcast. “We have the Iranians totally economically squeezed. They cannot pay the IRGC as long as we have the blockade in place … his regime is in really bad shape. We, the United States, have the capacity with our military to do these guided escorts to force the Strait open. We don’t need permission from the Iranians, which is what it feels like we’re in.”

Trump’s former national security adviser, and frequent critic, John Bolton, agrees. “The only way to establish deterrence, again, against Iran trying to close the Strait of Hormuz is to take it away from them militarily, to open up naval traffic on the Arabian side of the Gulf, allow Arab oil out into international markets while keeping a blockade against Iranian oil.”

“I don’t think the president understands the fanaticism of what’s left of the regime and the people who are in power,” Bolton said on CNN. “They can see that Trump is so palpably desperate to have a deal that he can declare to be a victory, and it lowers prices of gasoline, and they’re playing him on that. They’re stretching him out. They’re buying time.”

Meanwhile, Trump has thrown another demand into the mix, insisting that Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Qatar, and Kuwait join the Abraham Accords and grant full recognition to the state of Israel. Or he suggested, just maybe he’ll walk away from a deal and let Gulf allies fend for themselves.

WHAT’S TRUMP’S NEXT MOVE IN IRAN?

“I’m not sure we should make the deal if they don’t sign,” Trump said. “I think they owe that to us, to be honest. I think — because that really would be a tremendous sign. And I think those countries owe it to us.”

“If he can pull this off, if he can get Saudi Arabia ― the center of Islam for the entire world ― to recognize the Jewish state Israel, he’ll have ended the Arab-Israeli conflict that’s been going on for thousands of years — they should change the Nobel Prize to the Trump Prize,” Lindsey Graham gushed in an appearance on Fox News. 

Jamie McIntyre (@jamiejmcintyre) is the Washington Examiner‘s senior writer on national security.