For President Donald Trump, a peace agreement to end the war in Ukraine is his ultimate diplomatic white whale — an elusive goal on which he staked his reputation as a nonpareil deal-maker. And which, if accomplished, just might secure the Nobel Peace Prize he believes he’s been denied.
It was a year ago, at a U.S. military base in Alaska, that Trump thought he could hammer out a deal with Russian President Vladimir Putin, whom he considered a friend.
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Trump went in with hopes of brokering an immediate ceasefire. But he emerged from the face-to-face with nothing to show for it, at least not publicly.
The Russians had a different take on it.

They insist Trump committed to a secret Anchorage agreement that involved the U.S. agreeing to pressure Zelensky to give up territory in Ukraine’s eastern Donbas region that Russian forces had been unable to capture. Along with a promise that the size of Ukraine’s military would be reduced and that Ukraine would never join NATO.
In a Kremlin videoconference last month, Putin once again talked about how any settlement would have to be based on “modalities as discussed in Anchorage.”
“There was no agreement in Alaska,” Secretary of State Marco Rubio said two days later. “There was a proposal in Alaska, but there was no agreement in Alaska. If there had been an agreement, we would have had an end to the war.”
At this month’s NATO Leaders summit in Turkey, Trump had to admit to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky that a lot had changed since the February 2025 Oval Office dressing down. Where an angry Trump repeatedly berated Zelensky with the words, “You don’t have the cards.”
“We’ve actually developed a good relationship. It’s hard to believe, right? From the Oval Office to now,” a smiling Trump told Zelensky at a media availability. “This is going to be the beginning, maybe,” he added in what might be as close to an apology as Zelensky will ever get from Trump.
This year, the tide of battle began to turn as Ukraine’s domestic drone production increased exponentially. And its ability to strike oil refineries and supply routes deep into Russia and Crimea has played havoc with Russia’s already ailing economy.
Trump, it seems, is beginning to view Zelensky as a winner. And Trump likes to back winners.
“This has been going on for five — almost five years, right?” Trump mused at one point in their meeting. “Who would have thought it? I mean, it’s a tribute because [Russia’s] a bigger country, strong country, and it’s an amazing tribute.”
“He’s done an amazing job,” Trump complimented Zelensky. “He’s been very effective.”
Trump’s newfound confidence in Zelensky comes as his words of optimism echo the nearly identical upbeat predictions he made going into the failed 2025 summit with Putin.
“I talk to President Putin a lot, and he wants to end the war,” Trump insists. “[Zelensky] wants to see a settlement, and I think President Putin wants to see a settlement. And usually, that means a settlement, but who knows? This is a tough one.”
An upper hand for Ukraine?
Coming out of the Alaska summit, Trump’s strategy was to pressure Zelensky to accept a deal on Putin’s terms under the premise that Russia’s size and superior manpower would lead to an inevitable defeat and force Ukraine to accept a much worse deal down the road.
But by using innovative drone technology to stabilize the front lines with a nearly impregnable “Fortress Belt” kill zone, which claims the lives of roughly 1,000 Russian troops a day, Ukraine may not be winning, but it is not losing.
And Trump’s strategy has shifted as well, from pressuring Zelensky to pressuring Putin.
“We have a lot of pressure on President Putin,” Trump said. “I don’t think he likes what’s going on. … I don’t think he’s thrilled with what’s happening.”
While Trump ended direct military aid to Ukraine, at the NATO summit, he indicated he would give Ukraine a gift that keeps on giving, and one that fills the one big gap in Ukraine’s air defenses — a license to manufacture Patriot interceptor missiles, made in the U.S. by Raytheon, and which are the only effective system against Russian ballistic missiles.
“That’s pretty cool, right?” Trump said. “This way, you can’t complain that we’re not giving them enough and say, make them yourself.”
If Ukraine can ramp up production of Patriots in the same way it has supercharged its drone production, it will neutralize Russia’s last remaining military advantage over Ukraine.
“What I like about that, it’s a defensive situation as opposed to an offensive,” Trump said, while boasting that Ukraine has the brainpower and ingenuity to build the complex missiles.
“This is a very ingenious group,” Trump said. “They’ll be able to do it. You’ll be able to figure that out. Most countries couldn’t do that.”
Still, building a factory and producing missiles could take months, possibly years while Ukraine is suffering higher civilian casualties in its cities, including Kyiv, on a daily basis.
“Even though Ukraine is in a far better position than this administration seems prepared or able to acknowledge, neither side is benefiting from the continuation of war,” Richard Haass, a former U.S. ambassador and president emeritus of the Council on Foreign Relations, said on CNN.
“I actually think there’s a great opportunity if the United States would take a neutral position and simply push for a ceasefire, not try to impose a peace with territorial transfers that favor Russia,” Haass said. “This is the moment that President Trump really wants to get the peace deal, and I think he could just go for a neutral ceasefire that doesn’t prejudice anybody’s claims to territory.”
Trump continues to say that Ukraine is not America’s war, but he hates the carnage.
“Ukraine’s very far away. We have an ocean separating us. What I’m doing is I’m trying to save lives. A lot of lives are being lost,” he said. “It’s a nasty war. Thousands and thousands, mostly soldiers, are being killed. The battlefields — I see pictures, and it’s horrible.”
Trump wants to arrange a meeting between Putin and Zelensky, and he said he asked Putin, “Where would you want to meet?”
“He said, ‘Ideally in Moscow,’ Trump related. “I said, ‘You’re not going to meet in Moscow. You know, it just doesn’t work. You can’t do that.’”
Then Trump turned to Zelensky and asked, “Would you go to Moscow?”
TRUMP’S DECISION TO GIVE PATRIOT MISSILE LICENSE TO UKRAINE A LONG-TERM PLAN, NOT AN IMMEDIATE FIX
Zelensky, ever wary of saying anything that might rub Trump the wrong way, replied with a half-smile, “It’s difficult, right? Lots of Ukrainian drones there.”
Jamie McIntyre (@jamiejmcintyre) is the Washington Examiner’s senior writer on national security.
