How did this all begin?

We can trace the origins back to one of Trump’s social media posts. He had just defeated then-Vice President Kamala Harris in the 2024 election, and was gearing up for his second term in the Oval Office. As part of his forthcoming agenda, Trump announced that Canada and Mexico faced the prospect of significant tariffs.

“On January 20th, as one of my many first Executive Orders, I will sign all necessary documents to charge Mexico and Canada a 25% Tariff on ALL products coming into the United States, and its ridiculous Open Borders,” he wrote on Truth Social on Nov. 25, 2024. “This Tariff will remain in effect until such time as Drugs, in particular Fentanyl, and all Illegal Aliens stop this Invasion of our Country! Both Mexico and Canada have the absolute right and power to easily solve this long simmering problem. We hereby demand that they use this power, and until such time that they do, it is time for them to pay a very big price!”

Trump’s position was understandable. Then-Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau and his Liberal government, who were in power during his first presidential term, had barely focused on North American border safety and security for most of his nine years in office. The black market for illegal weapons and drugs was still a significant problem. Immigration to Canada had skyrocketed to unprecedented and unaffordable levels, with serious concerns about a faulty vetting process and illegal aliens having remained largely unaddressed.

It’s no secret that Trump doesn’t respect weak, ineffective political leaders. It’s also no secret that Trudeau was one of the worst of this miserable lot. He’s a left-wing mediocrity enamored with political correctness, environmentalism, and gender consciousness. He spent the taxpayers’ money like a drunken sailor, had no political backbone, didn’t understand economics (he once bizarrely said the Canadian budget “will balance itself” in a Feb. 2014 television interview, and told reporters in Aug. 2021, “you’ll forgive me if I don’t think about monetary policy”), made off-the-wall remarks like “peoplekind” in public with a straight face, and preferred soft, squishy negotiations with public figures. That’s why Trump described Trudeau as “meek and mild” and “very dishonest and weak,” during the G7 meetings in June 2018, among many other vivid descriptions.

Trump likely didn’t want to face the prospect of dealing with Trudeau’s left-wing, out-of-touch nonsense once more. He found a way to get rid of him, whether by accident or design. Fox News reported that during a Nov. 29, 2024, dinner meeting at Mar-a-Lago, Trudeau told Trump the tariffs would “kill the Canadian economy completely.” Trump responded, “So, your country can’t survive unless it’s ripping off the U.S. to the tune of $100 billion?” He followed up with an amusing proposal: Canada could “become the 51st state.” While Trump acknowledged to Trudeau that “prime minister is a better title,” he could still be “governor of the 51st state.” The president-elect clearly enjoyed getting under Trudeau’s skin with jokes, quips, and memes about this meeting. While the PM’s popularity numbers were already crumbling at this point, this controversy played a major role in his decision to resign in January 2025.

Yet, it’s been clear since the beginning that Trump wasn’t being serious. If Canada ever wanted to willingly join the U.S., he would have welcomed these discussions like any U.S. president would. The White House was surely aware of polling data that consistently showed Canada overwhelmingly had no interest in pursuing this. And while Trump never had any plans of annexing Canada or using military force, a January 2025 Angus Reid poll revealed that 62% of respondents didn’t trust him.

That’s why Trump used this situation to his personal and political advantage not only with Trudeau, but also with his successor, Mark Carney.

The former governor of the Bank of Canada and Bank of England is a different political foe — and a more intelligent, competent individual. This didn’t trouble the president in any way, shape or form. Why? Carney had no political experience and didn’t understand the dog-eat-dog world of politics.

As I wrote in a May 1, 2025 National Post column, he was “socially awkward, aloof, egotistical and doesn’t possess a backbone.” I also pointed out in a March 16, 2025, National Post column that Carney and Trudeau weren’t that dissimilar. “They’re both left-wing, pro-government intervention, distrusting of privatization and free markets, favourable towards wealth redistribution, supportive of radical environmentalist policies, woke ideology and political correctness — and more.” 

Trump, therefore, decided to help keep Carney in office by interjecting himself into the April 28, 2025, Canadian election. This was accomplished in several strategic ways.

The U.S.-Canada tariff war intensified during the campaign and became the main political issue for Canada’s electorate. Right-leaning provincial premiers like Ontario’s Doug Ford and Alberta’s Danielle Smith both intervened with the Trump White House, albeit in different ways and with different degrees of success. Carney’s moronic “elbows up” campaign to combat Trump and tariffs was successful for a spell, too. The president’s political agenda was top of mind for Canadian voters, while everything else became secondary or irrelevant.

Canada needed a white knight to take on Trump. This role could have been assumed by Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre. He had led Trudeau’s Liberals for over two years in the polls, and his lead had stretched out to more than 20 points. But while many Canadian progressives incorrectly believed that Trump and Poilievre were two sides of the same political coin — nothing could have been further from the truth, since Poilievre firmly believed in free markets, free trade, and more personal liberties and freedoms — the former wanted nothing to do with the latter.

“I think his biggest problem is he’s not a MAGA guy, you know? I mean, he’s really not… a Trump guy at all,” Trump said during a Feb. 28, 2025, interview with The Spectator’s Ben Domenech. Trump also told Fox News’s Laura Ingraham on Mar. 19, 2025, that Poilievre is “stupidly no friend of mine” and “I think it’s easier to deal actually with a Liberal.”

That last line was quite revealing. Trump wanted Carney, not Poilievre, at the other end of the bargaining table. He was going to do everything in his power to achieve it.

A Canadian readout of the first Carney-Trump phone call on Mar. 28, 2025, suggested the two leaders had had a “constructive conversation” and “agreed to begin comprehensive negotiations about a new economic and security relationship immediately following the election.” A March 30, 2025, Ipsos poll showed Carney leading Poilievre in categories like “someone who is best to manage during tough economic times” and “someone who is best to represent Canada on the world stage,” and had a surprising 12-point lead as the best leader who could “stand up to President Trump.” There wasn’t a shred of evidence to prove this, but many Canadians were too blind with rage and anti-American sentiment to realize what the president was doing, and did, to keep Carney as prime minister.

Carney was determined to repair Canada-U.S. relations at first, including stronger stances on border security, illegal immigration, and fentanyl. This position has slowed down considerably. He went from Canada being in “intensive negotiations with the Americans” to end tariffs last June, to “nothing’s assured” and Canada will only accept the “right deal” a couple of weeks later, to cryptic attacks against Trump in his Davos speech in January about a “rupture in the world order,” “gaps between rhetoric and reality” and “American hegemony.” Carney also released a short video in April that led some analysts suggested was a nod to FDR’s fireside chats. In reality, it was more of a soapbox to push back against Trump without naming him directly. To wit, “We can’t control the disruption coming from our neighbors. We can’t bet our future on the hope that it will suddenly stop. But we can control what happens here.”

The PM’s current strategy has been to diversify Canada’s political, economic, and military interests. He’s built closer ties between Canada and the European Union, suggesting the former was the “most European of non-European countries.” He’s also increased trade relations with other countries, including a controversial “strategic partnership” with China. While political and economic diversification is perfectly fine, Carney is doing this at the expense of the badly damaged Canada-U.S. relationship.

Carney’s new direction has impacted the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement, too. Trump had recently told reporters, “I’m not looking to renew it… We don’t need anything to Canada has, we don’t need anything that Mexico has, but they need everything that we have, and they have to treat us better.”

While the president had made similar nonchalant remarks about this trade deal (including when it was still known as the North American Free Trade Agreement) and the renegotiation process, it had never been quite this direct. The White House ultimately decided against renewing it on July 1. The USMCA will now enter a period of annual review until it expires on July 1, 2036, or one of the three countries gives a six-month advance notice of a formal withdrawal. Did Carney’s decision to thumb his nose at Trump play a role in this? It’s certainly possible.

There’s also the Pentagon’s recent decision to pause its participation in the Permanent Joint Board of Defense, which Canada and the U.S. established on Aug. 17, 1940. The Brian Mulroney Institute for Government noted that it “helped provide a framework for continental defence cooperation between Canada and the United States during the Second World War.” The PJBD evolved into a “senior advisory body on continental security for Canada and the United States” after the war ended, as well as a “forum for Canadian and American diplomatic and military leaders to handle politically sensitive matters.” There have been some prominent board members, including former New York City mayor Fiorello H. La Guardia. U.S. military representatives “were placed under the Joint Chiefs of Staff” by December 1947. The PJBP has been involved in NORAD, Distant Early Warning System, Airborne Warning & Control System, the Alaska Highway, and the St. Lawrence Seaway.

Undersecretary of War Elbridge Colby posted on social media that this decision was made because “Canada has failed to make credible progress on its defense commitments.” Colby said the Department of War would “reassess how this forum benefits shared North American defense… We can no longer avoid the gaps between rhetoric and reality. Real powers must sustain our rhetoric with shared defense and security responsibilities.”

How did Carney and Canada respond to this serious dressing-down by Colby and the Pentagon? Not the way you would expect. The PM inexplicably said the PJBD “has a long heritage but I wouldn’t overplay the importance of this. We have many aspects of very close defence co-operation with the United States…There’s lots of co-operation we will continue to do so.”

Really? There may be other components to defense and security matters, but the decision to pause this 86-year-old board was far from insignificant. When a longtime friend and ally suggests you’re not taking safety and security issues seriously enough, you should overplay its importance, period.

Will the U.S. and Canada ever get on the same page again? Yes, but it will take time and effort on the part of both sides.

Ensuring the USMCA’s annual review goes well for the remainder of Trump’s second presidential term should go without saying. An estimated $3.6 billion CAD (roughly $2.6 billion USD) in imports and exports flows through the Canada-U.S. border every day. Trade matters to individuals and businesses in both of our countries, and it needs to be preserved and protected. And who knows? While Trump has never been enthusiastic about NAFTA or the USMCA, maybe he’ll change his mind if Carney modifies his position, language, and tone about looking for new trade partners outside of the U.S.

TRUMP TO IMPOSE 50% TARIFFS ON CANADA IN RESPONSE TO RETALITORY DUTIES 

Carney’s support of the “Fortress North America” concept could be helpful, too. “Canada Strong will help Make America Great Again,” the PM said in a speech to the Economic Club of New York with some Trump-inspired language.“While Canada and the United States have had our differences over the centuries, we have always worked and eventually worked through them because we share values and our common interests run deep.” In the PM’s view, “a fortress North America is in everyone’s interest.” While the fortress is usually discussed in economic terms, it will also cover defense, security, and geopolitical concerns. There’s an opportunity for Carney and Trump to work together to create a secure border, clamp down on illegal immigration, drugs, and crime levels, and prove to the U.S. that safety and security matter to the Canadian government.

Canada and the U.S. need to become friends once more. It’s up to Carney and Trump to find a way to put their political and personal differences aside and work together to rebuild the broken relationship between our countries. Let’s hope they find a path to success before long.

Michael Taube, a columnist for the National Post, Troy Media, and Loonie Politics, was a speechwriter for former Canadian Prime Minister Stephen Harper.